EIGHT years ago NATO planes were bombing Serbia. They were at the beginning of a 78-day campaign, which concluded with Serbian forces being driven out of Kosovo, its southern province. For much of that period diplomats from the big countries involved were in constant contact in a frantic attempt to end the war. With Russia's help, the bombing was brought to an end by a resolution at the UN Security Council. On Tuesday April 3rd the Security Council will discuss a plan for Kosovo's independence. Russia's involvement means that the session is not expected to be easy. There are still no good solutions to the thorny problem of Kosovo, only less bad ones. As far as most western countries are concerned a workable plan for the future of the province is now on the table. Russia however rejects this settlement, which proposes independence. Kosovo was (and technically remains) a province of Serbia. The overwhelming majority of its 2m people are ethnic Albanians who want nothing less than independence. Serbia’s leaders do not accept this. Ever since the end of the Kosovo war, the territory has been under the jurisdiction of the UN. Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president asked by the UN to come up with a solution for Kosovo, delivered his plans to the Security Council on March 26th. In his accompanying report, Mr Ahtisaari did some plain speaking. He says that Serbs and Albanians have “diametrically opposed positions” and that “no amount of additional talks, whatever the format, will overcome this impasse.” His conclusion is that, “the only viable option for Kosovo is independence, to be supervised for an initial period by the international community.”Kosovo is now under the jurisdiction of the UN, so a new Security Council resolution is needed to change this. If the Security Council accepts Mr Ahtisaari’s plan then not only will NATO’s current peacekeeping force stay there, but a large EU mission will help to supervise the police and judiciary. And the position of a powerful international governor general will be created, with the ability to sack local officials and strike down laws inconsistent with the Ahtisaari settlement. Vojislav Kostunica, Serbia's caretaker prime minister, hopes Russia will veto this “plan to dismember Serbia.” Independence, he gives warning, “would be an act of violence against the law.” Russian officials meanwhile insist that more talks are necessary. They see Kosovo’s independence as a precedent under international law, something that the Americans, British and others reject. Across the former Soviet Union there are several “frozen conflicts” bearing some similarities to Kosovo. One is in Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan; another is in Transdniestria, a breakaway part of Moldova. Perhaps Russian officials believe that it is possible to keep Kosovo frozen too and thus avoid hard decisions. The problem is that Kosovo is near boiling point and could explode at any moment.Western diplomats warn that if Russia blocks Kosovo's independence at the UN, violence is certain to breakout. Also, without a Security Council resolution Kosovo's Albanians are likely to declare independence anyway. This could result in an almighty mess with some countries, perhaps including America, recognising the new state but with many others, including EU countries, not doing so. Mr Ahtisaari has told sceptics within the EU (Spain, Slovakia and Greece) that European unity is more important than their doubts. Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, has thrown his weight behind the plan, as has the head of NATO. Western diplomats are worried that Russia will block a new resolution and spark a another conflagration in the Balkans. But Russia may not want to pick a fight against both America and the EU. No doubt some secret, bilateral diplomacy is underway, with senior American diplomats asking Russia what it wants in exchange for supporting a new UN resolution. If there is a new resolution we may not know until the history books are written what price Russia extracted in exchange for its support.
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8945415
JPTF 2007/04/04
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