‘Preparem-se para uma nova era de choques petrolíferos‘ artigo de Martin Wolf no Financial Times

 [...] Oil, unlike natural gas, is a globally traded commodity, whose price is set in world markets. In 2010, the US produced 7.8m barrels a day, 9 per cent of the world’s supply. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the US lacks spare capacity: it is a price taker. Responding to his critics, Mr Obama said: “We are drilling more. We are producing more. But the fact is, producing more oil at home isn’t enough to bring gas prices down overnight.” These remarks are correct, except for the last word. Producing more oil would have next to no effect on oil prices.
Moreover, if there is a specific cause for the rise in oil prices, it is the tightening of sanctions on Iran, which Republicans support. If, as many desire, military action is taken, the impact on oil prices and the world economy will be far greater.
In the longer run, a big reduction in US demand, still 20 per cent of the world’s total, might make an appreciable difference to prices. Moreover, the relative wastefulness of US oil use, compared with other high-income countries, would make such a reduction quite easy to achieve. The best way to make this happen would be to raise prices, via higher taxation. But that policy is deemed un-American. It is a policy fit only for European wimps.
Yet, despite the absurd politicking, we should be concerned about the economic impact of high oil prices: a rise of $10 in the price of oil shifts $320bn a year from higher-spending consumers to lower-spending producers, within and across countries. The 15 per cent rise since December 2011 would shift close to $500bn. The real price of oil is also very high, by historical standards (see chart). Further rises would take the world into uncharted territory. [...]

Ver artigo no Financial Times

Ainda sobre o esgotamento do petróleo: ‘O Crepúsculo no Deserto‘ de Matthew R. Simons

‘Planeta tem menos petróleo do que as estatísticas oficiais dizem‘

O planeta tem muito menos reservas de petróleo do que as previsões oficiais indicam. A afirmação não pertence a nenhum ‘petrocéptico’, mas a um elemento de topo ligado à Agência Internacional de Energia, citado sob anonimato na edição de hoje do diário britânico The Guardian.

Segundo esta fonte, a entidade tem afastado deliberadamente a ameaça de uma escassez de petróleo por receio de uma vaga de pânico consumista, uma acusação que acentua a polémica em torno do rigor das estatísticas oficiais que os países usam como referência para as suas políticas.

O jornal cita o quadro da AIE, de acordo com o qual os EUA têm usado a sua influência junto da organização para que esta estime em baixa a taxa de declínio dos campos petrolíferos em actividade, ao mesmo tempo que estima em alta as possibilidades de serem encontradas novas reservas petrolíferas. A suspeita já não é nova, muitos dos especialistas ligados ao movimento do chamado “pico do petróleo” alertam há anos para esse risco, defendendo que a produção mundial já ultrapassou o seu pico e se encontra já em declínio. A questão torna-se agora ainda mais séria quando se reconhece que os números reais não saem a público por receio de uma grave crise nos mercados financeiros mundiais e na fragilização dos interesses americanos no acesso aos recursos petrolíferos.

No centro das dúvidas, estão as previsões da AIE, segundo as quais a produção mundial de petróleo pode ser elevada de 83 milhões de barris diários para 105 milhões – projecção que os críticos consideram carecer de evidência firme, uma matéria que, para países como o Reino Unido é especialmente grave, sobretudo depois de se ter tornado importador de petróleo, com o fim das suas reservas no Mar do Norte, desde 2005.

A fonte citada pelo Guardian, que pediu anonimato para evitar represálias da indústria, usa os números da própria AIE para explicar como o problema tem sido gerido. “Em 2005, a AIE previa que a produção de petróleo podia subir até 120 milhões de barris diários em 2030. Desde então, tem baixado gradualmente essa previsão para 116 milhões, depois para 105 milhões no ano passado”. E acrescenta: “o número dos 120 milhões de barris nunca fez sentido e mesmo os valores actuais são demasiado elevados para serem justificados e a AIE sabe isso”.

Admitir valores mais baixos, embora alegadamente mais próximos da realidade, poderão criar uma situação de ruptura no mercado petrolífero e o “receio de que o pânico se espalhasse pelos mercados financeiros, sendo que os americanos temem o fim da supremacia do petróleo, proque isso pode ameaçar o seu poder de acesso aos recursos petrolíferos”, adiantou a mesma fonte.

Outro elemento que já foi quadro de topo da AIE reconhece também que conheceu uma regra interna segundo a qual era “imperativo não enfurecer os americanos”, ao mesmo tempo que se aceitava que não havia assim tanto petróleo no mundo como se fazia crer.

Para o Reino Unido, estas suspeitas podem dar uma nova importância à conferência de Copenhaga, que discutirá o pós-Quioto dentro de menos de um mês, e as medidas para uma economia mundial com menores emissões de gases com efeito de estufa.

Especialistas da indústria petrolífera como Matt Simmons, recentemente entrevistado pelo PÚBLICO, ou Colin Campbell, co-fundador do movimento do pico do petróleo reforçam a necessidade de prudência a olhar para os números oficiais. O primeiro há vários anos que diz que as estimativas de reservas estão sobrevalorizadas, a começar pelas da Arábia Saudita. O Segundo até admire que se os números verdadeiros viessem a público, causariam pânico nos mercados financeiros “ e no final não aproveitaria a ninguém”.

http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1409268

‘Um eixo necessitado de petróleo‘, cartoon de Claudio Muñoz para a revista The Economist

'Eixo do petróleo' forçado a mudar a sua estratégia devido à queda dos preços in Times, 18 de Outubro de 2008

Together they form an “Axis of Diesel”. Buoyed by petrodollars, Russia, Iran and Venezuela hectored the West as they extended their reach abroad, backing separatists in Georgia, Islamists in the Middle East and Leftists around the world.

Now those oil-producing powers may be forced to draw in their horns as crude prices tumble. They face austerity budgets that could force them to scale back their military spending and foreign assistance even as falling oil prices fuel domestic dissent.

“All countries heavily dependent on petroleum revenue are nervously watching oil prices as they drop not just far, but quickly,” said Jonathan Elkind, a senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“That price adjustment is raising questions in all these capitals about the suitability of the economic model that has been making them feel so full of themselves in the recent period.

“It would be a serious mistake for people in the United States or other net consumers to feel a sense of the satisfaction that ‘Happy days are here again',” he said. “They're not.”

Leaders in Tehran, Moscow and Caracas have gloated as the financial crisis has hobbled the United States and its Western allies. Analysts say that the three swaggering petro-states are the most vulnerable oil producers to the steep price declines. From a record high of $147 (£85) a barrel in July, crude oil is now trading at around $70 after dipping to its lowest level since August 2007.

Deutsche Bank estimated in a recent research note that Iran and Venezuela need an oil price of more than $95 a barrel to balance their budgets, and Russia requires a price of $75. That compares to a break-even figure of $55 for Saudi Arabia.

Iran and Venezuela have led so-called oil hawks in recent days to push the producer cartel Opec to bring forward an emergency meeting to next Friday, from mid-November, to discuss cutting output quotas to drive up the price. While Russia has prudently salted away much of its oil windfall in “rainy day” funds, Iran and Venezuela are much worse prepared for the downturn, Mr Elkind said.

The tumbling oil prices are grim news for President Ahmadinejad of Iran as he prepares to fight for re-election next June. The populist son of a blacksmith won a landslide election victory three years ago by pledging to give the poor a fairer share of Iran's oil wealth. Now the economy is his Achilles' heel. His profligate spending of petrodollars from record oil revenues has stoked inflation, which topped 29 per cent last month, compared with 12 per cent when he took power.

Bazaar merchants - a potent middle-class force - went on strike last week for the first time since the run-up to the country's Islamic revolution, forcing Mr Ahmadinejad to scrap plans to impose 3 per cent VAT to help to replenish Iran's coffers.

Iranian reformers are urging the headstrong Mr Ahmadinejad to prepare for lower oil revenues by slashing subsidies on commodities such as sugar, cooking oil and wheat. Instead, with an eye on the elections, he continues to tour the provinces, attempting to buy rural support by dispensing largesse in cash and loans.

In Venezuela the Government has unveiled an austerity budget. Just as in Iran, however, Mr Chávez maintains his populist social spending ahead of municipal and state elections. Economic analysts predict that the Government will be forced to raise taxes and devalue the currency.

First affected may be Venezuela's foreign allies. The country's energy aid to friendly nations, which has bought it influence across the continent, is likely to be reined in. Its generous credit programme for Caribbean partners in the PetroCaribe energy accord has been reduced from 50 to 40 per cent.

Defence spending may also be hit. Venezuela has bought about $4.4 billion-worth of Russian military equipment since 2005. Last month it got a $1 billion Russian loan for more purchases - the first time it has sought financing for arms deals with Moscow.

Russia is best positioned for the crisis, having built up the world's third-largest foreign currency reserves before the crisis, at $580 billion. As its stock market plunged it has been forced to spend more than $32 billion in the past two weeks to prop up the currency and bail out banks. The Kremlin will be forced to plug holes in next year's budget by dipping into the Reserve Fund, a $154 billion repository of windfall oil revenues forecast to grow to $174 billion by 2010, but may now start to shrink instead.

President Medvedev, however, is determined to press on with modernisation of the military and has adopted an increasingly strident tone with the West. He has ordered a renovation of Russia's nuclear deterrent and the creation of new space and missile defence shields by 2020, as well as the “mass production of warships... and multi-purpose submarines”.

Nevertheless, Western diplomats detected signs of a new Russian flexibility during last month's UN General Assembly, when Moscow backed an extension of the Nato mandate in Afghanistan and agreed to a meeting on Iran's nuclear programme.

Frank Verrastro, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted that oil prices had only fallen to last year's levels and cautioned that it would take more sustained price falls to trigger long-lasting changes by major oil producers.

“It's premature to say people are radically changing their behaviour,” he said. “I think they will, but not yet.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4965242.ece

JPTF 2008/10/18

Brasil, nova potência petrolífera mundial?

O director-geral da Agência Nacional do Petróleo do Brasil, Haroldo Lima, anunciou, nesta segunda-feira, durante uma conferência para um público especializado, que um novo campo de petróleo descoberto no Brasil, poderá ser o terceiro maior do mundo. A confirmar-se esta previsão, as suas reservas serão de cerca de 33 biliões de barris. Pronunciando-se sobre o assunto, o director de Exploração e Produção da Petrobras, Guilherme Estrella, foi bastante prudente, afirmando que as primeiras estimativas oficiais da empresa sobre o bloco BM-S-9, conhecido como carioca, só serão conhecidas nos próximos três meses. Ver notícia do jornal Folha de São Paulo e da revista WorldOil.
JPTF 2008/04/17

"Preço do barril de petróleo ultrapassou os 100 dólares" in CNN, 2 de Janeiro de 2008

Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time ever, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products will continue to outstrip supplies.

Surging economies in China and India fed by oil and gasoline have sent prices soaring over the past year, while tensions in oil producing nations like Nigeria and Iran have increasingly made investors nervous and invited speculators to drive prices even higher.

Violence in Nigeria helped give crude the final push over $100. Bands of armed men invaded Port Harcourt, the center of Nigeria's oil industry Tuesday, attacking two police stations and raiding the lobby of a major hotel.

Word that several Mexican oil export ports were closed due to rough weather added to the gains, as did a report that OPEC may not be able to meet its share of global oil demand by 2024.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Brenda Guzman, a Nymex spokeswoman, before slipping back to $99.48.

Crude prices, which have flirted with $100 for months, have risen in recent days on supply concerns exacerbated by Turkish attacks on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq and falling domestic inventories.

However, post-holiday trading volumes were about 50 percent of normal Wednesday, meaning the price move was likely exaggerated by speculative buying.

"I would imagine the speculators are the biggest drivers today," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago.

It's hard to say whether prices would have risen as quickly on a normal trading day, Flynn said. While crude prices have soared on mounting supply concerns in recent months, speculators have often been cited as a reason for the swiftness of oil's climb.

Moreover, many of the concerns about supply disruptions have yet to materialize, but that hasn't stopped buyers from driving prices higher.

"Although the (Nigerian) violence has not impacted oil flow out of the country, it has reignited supply concerns as militant attacks have reduced Nigeria's crude output by roughly 20 percent since 2006," said John Gerdes, an analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey in a research note. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer.

Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said its member nations may not be able to meet demand as early as 2024, though OPEC also said that deadline could slide for decades if members increase production more quickly. Word that several Mexican oil export ports were closed due to rough weather added to the gains.

On top of those concerns, investors are anticipating that crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week, which would be the 7th weekly decline in a row.

"(A decline) is not anything unusual for this time of year, but when it happens for 7 weeks in a row, it starts to add up," said Amanda Kurzendoerfer, an analyst at Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, Ky.

Oil prices are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices rose 0.6 cent Wednesday to a national average of $3.049 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices, which typically lag the futures market, have edged higher in recent days, following oil's approach to $100.

Gas prices peaked at $3.227 a gallon in May as refiners faced unprecedented maintenance issues and struggled to produce enough gasoline to meet demand. A similar scenario is expected this spring, when gas prices could peak above $3.40 a gallon, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.

The EIA's inventory report, delayed until Thursday this week due to the New Year's holiday, is also expected to show gains in gasoline supplies and refinery activity, and a decline in supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel.

In other Nymex trading Wednesday, February heating oil futures rose 9.06 cents to $2.74 a gallon while February gasoline futures climbed 7.92 cents to $2.57 a gallon. February natural gas futures advanced 26.7 cents to $7.75 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, February Brent crude rose $3.11 to $97.58 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/01/02/oil.record.high.ap/index.html

JPTF 2008/01/02

Jogos de Guerra 4 - "Declínio abrupto da produção de petróleo aumenta o risco de guerra, diz estudo" in Guardian 23 de Outubro de 2007

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy.

The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production after its peak, which he says is now behind us.

The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment.

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day - EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.

Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life."

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book about "peak oil" - defined as the moment when maximum production is reached, said that both the UK government and the energy industry were in "institutionalised denial" and that action should have been taken sooner.

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed that we set up a taskforce to look at how fast the UK could mobilise alternative energy technologies in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other industry advisers supported that. But the government prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency study. For those of us who know that premature peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is impossible to understand such complacency."

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly towards the massive deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in energy efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change and to ensure that the lights stayed on. "If we did all this we may not have an energy crisis."

He accused the British government of hypocrisy. "Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot about climate change but have not brought in proper policies to drive up the use of renewables," he said. "This is why they are left talking about nuclear and carbon capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of Business and Enterprise said: "Over the next few years global oil production and refining capacity is expected to increase faster than demand. The world's oil resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future. The challenge will be to bring these resources to market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely, reliable and affordable supplies of energy."

The German policy, which guarantees above-market payments to producers of renewable power, is being adopted in many countries - but not Britain, where renewables generate about 4% of the country's electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.
JPTF 23/10/2007