An overwhelming majority of people in the European Union’s five biggest member states want the bloc’s treaty on institutional reform to be submitted to national referendums, according to an opinion poll published on Thursday.
The FT/Harris poll will keep Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, on the defensive by strengthening the determination of his political opponents to secure a referendum on the treaty, which is due to be approved at an EU summit in Lisbon starting on Thursday.
The poll is likely to unsettle political leaders in other EU capitals who oppose holding referendums for fear of a repeat of the French and Dutch votes of 2005 that wrecked the EU’s ill-fated constitutional treaty.
The new document, known as the reform treaty, resembles the old in that it reshapes the EU’s institutions, changes its voting procedures, expands the role of the European parliament and national legislatures, and includes a charter of fundamental rights.
However, Mr Brown contends that Britain need not hold a referendum because it has secured enough opt-outs and brakes on EU action to render the new treaty different from the old.
According to the poll, 70 per cent of those questioned in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK want a referendum, 20 per cent do not, and 10 per cent are unsure.
Some 76 per cent of Germans want a referendum, 75 per cent of Britons, 72 per cent of Italians, 65 per cent of Spaniards and 63 per cent of French.
Only the Irish Republic is constitutionally obliged to stage a referendum to ratify the treaty.
Other countries intend to submit it to their legislatures, with the aim of securing approval by all 27 EU countries before the June 2009 European parliament elections.
José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, told reporters on Wednesday that a referendum was as valid as parliamentary ratification. “Both ways are equally legitimate. No democracy can argue against that,” he said.
Some politicians have warned that, by avoiding referendums and making the treaty a complicated document that amends earlier EU treaties, the EU “will reinforce the idea among European citizens that European construction is a mechanism organised behind their backs by jurists and diplomats”, as Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, a former French president, puts it.
The survey shows that, in spite of Britain’s opt-outs, public opinion in the UK is much more critical of the treaty than elsewhere. Overall, 38 per cent say the treaty will have a positive impact on the EU and 23 per cent a negative impact, with 14 per cent foreseeing no impact and 25 per cent unsure.
In Britain, however, 51 per cent foresee a negative impact on the EU and only 17 per cent a positive impact. The strongest support comes from Italy, where 49 per cent foresee a positive impact and 13 per cent a negative impact.
The poll reveals widespread ignorance about the treaty, with 61 per cent saying they are “not at all familiar” with it, 34 per cent claiming they are “somewhat familiar”, 3 per cent describing themselves as “very familiar” and 1 per cent “extremely familiar”.
The poll also showed that 25 per cent of respondents thought that the European parliament was the EU’s most powerful institution, with 22 per cent each for the Commission and national governments and 17 per cent for the European Court of Justice. The FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 5,604 adults in France, Germany, the UK, Spain and Italy between October 3 and 15.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1445317e-7cd3-11dc-aee2-0000779fd2ac.html
JPTF 2007/10/18
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