Global emissions of carbon dioxide are increasing three times faster than scientists previously thought, with the bulk of the rise coming from developing countries, an authoritative study has found. People wait to collect water after a drought hit part of south west China. The impact of global warming is clearer each day. The increase in emissions of the gases responsible for global warming suggests that the effects of climate change to come in this century could be even worse than United Nations scientists have predicted. The report, by leading universities and institutes on both sides of the Atlantic, will create renewed pressure on G8 leaders who are meeting this week in Heiligendamm, on Germany's Baltic coast. Top of the agenda are proposals by Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, to halve global emissions by 2050. There were violent clashes at the weekend in the nearby city of Rostock between police and protesters during a march by tens of thousands demonstrating about the summit. The latest study was written by scientists from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the United States, the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, as well as institutes in France and Australia. It shows that carbon dioxide emissions have been increasing by three per cent a year this decade, compared to a 1.1 per cent a year rise in the 1990s. Three quarters of this rise came from developing countries, with a particularly rapid increase in China. The rise is much faster than even the most fossil-fuel intensive scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during the 1990s. It suggests that IPCC reports this year predicting reduced harvests, dwindling water supplies, melting glaciers and the loss of species may actually be understated. It also comes after the International Energy Agency warned recently that China was likely to overtake the United States as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases by 2010, rather than a decade later as previously assumed. Both China and India are resisting any move that could curb their growth. Meanwhile, President George W Bush indicated last week that he did not favour the European Union's proposed approach of trying to limit the temperature rise to below two degrees centigrade. He still opposes the use of "cap and trade" financial mechanisms, which Europeans believe are the only way of transferring clean technologies to the developing world. However, he has indicated a willingness to "lead" talks to devise a post-Kyoto treaty that would include the world's top 15 polluters by the time he leaves office in early 2009. A report by leading aid charities, including Oxfam and Christian Aid, will say today that between one billion and four billion people are likely to suffer from drought and 250 million run short of food if average temperatures rise by more than two degrees. Antonio Hill, of Oxfam, said: "G8 counties face two obligations in this year's summit - to keep global warming below two degrees and to start helping poor countries to cope with harm already caused."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=QEXCIR53CAY4BQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/06/04/neco04.xml
JPTF 2007/06/04
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