Espasmo ou espiral? A escolha do Ocidente

 The other day a bright young diplomat from China set me an examination question. My first thought was that it sprang from that admirable Chinese trait of searching out enduring patterns in the clatter and chaos of events. Then it struck me that anyone watching the train crashes on either side of the Atlantic should be asking something similar.

The US faces an unsustainable debt burden alongside sustained political paralysis. Strategic decision-making is held hostage to ideological polarisation. Democrats and Republicans may well escape a calamitous default with an 11th-hour deal on the debt ceiling. But a sticking plaster will not bridge the rancorous divide over tax and spending that piles deficit on deficit.


In Europe, the stakes have been higher still. The European Union’s core project, the single currency, has been buckling under the weight of sovereign debt and political discord. Solidarity has been lost to resurgent nationalisms. Germany’s Angela Merkel says that 60-odd years of European integration is under threat. Yet the leader of Europe’s most powerful nation has seemed frozen in the headlights of indecision. [...]


Ver artigo no Financial Times

Moody's: ‘Fomos atacados na nossa imagem‘ cartoon do jornal Le Soleil

Comissária da Justiça sugere desmantelamento da Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s e Fitch

A comissária europeia para a Justiça, Viviane Reding, propôs hoje o desmantelamento das três principais agências de rating norte-americanas, a Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s e Fitch, em declarações ao jornal alemão Die Welt.

“A Europa não pode permitir que o euro seja destruído por três empresas privadas norte-americanas”, disse a comissária luxemburguesa, exigindo mais transparência e mais concorrência na avaliação de Estados pelas referidas agências.

“Só vejo duas soluções, ou os Estados do G-20 decidem desmantelar o cartel das três agências de rating norte-americanas, e de três agências fazer seis, por exemplo, ou criar agências de rating independentes na Europa e na Ásia”, acrescentou Reding.  [...]

Ver notícia no Público

Petição do jornal i, ‘A Europa não é um lixo‘

O Jornal i lançou, esta sexta-feira, uma petição contra o oligopólio das agências de rating, que estão a destruir a economia europeia.

Nos primeiros quinze minutos em que ficou disponível, a petição, intitulada “A Europa não é lixo”, foi assinada por 100 pessoas. Neste momento já ultrapassou as 2000 assinaturas.

Foram também vários os grupos nas redes sociais que se associaram de imediato a esta causa, divulgando-a nas suas páginas. [...]

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EUA suspendem ajuda militar ao Paquistão

The US says it is withholding some $800m in military aid to Pakistan.

White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley told ABC television that Pakistan had "taken some steps that have given us reason to pause on some of the aid".

He said the US raid that killed Osama Bin Laden in May had affected ties but he insisted the relationship "must be made to work over time".

The $800m (£500m) equates to about a third of the annual US security aid to Pakistan, US officials say.

In figures submitted to the International Monetary Fund last autumn, Pakistan's defence expenditure in its 2010-2011 budget was put at $6.41bn - an increase of $1.27bn on the previous year. [...]

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O desapontamento da vitória para o AKP da Turquia

In this month’s Turkish parliamentary elections, the governing Justice and DevelopmentParty (AKP) won almost 50 percent of the popular vote, up from 46.5 in the previous elections. The success was thanks in part to Turkey’s strong performance under the conservative AKP; since 2002, Turkey’s economic growth has been behind only that of China and India. Still, the AKP fell short by three seats of retaining the supermajority - control of 330 out of 550 parliamentary seats, which gives a single party the ability to amend the constitution - that the party has enjoyed since 2002, when it first came to power. (Although the AKP increased its vote share this year, the secular, social democratic Republican Peoples Party [CHP] and Kurdish nationalist Peace and Democracy Party [BDP] registered higher gains, therefore stealing some AKP seats.) This is a positive development for Turkey’s fragile democracy, which has become dangerously polarized between the conservatives and the secular liberals. For the first time in nearly a decade, the AKP will be forced to seek consensus to govern, especially in regions where its electoral performance was weak: the country’s liberal Aegean coast, Thrace, and the middle-class neighborhoods of Istanbul and other large cities.

The new balance in Turkey’s government presents both historic challenges and historic opportunities. Since Turkey became a multiparty democracy in 1946, the country has never had a constitution crafted by civilians, instead making do with a series of charters developed by military-led parliaments. Recently, driven by almost a decade of economic and political development, majorities in both the liberal and conservative parties have come to support drafting a new constitution. The fate of such an effort depended on the outcome of the elections. If the AKP’s victory had been large enough, it could have gone it alone, creating a document that would have likely enshrined social conservatism. Since the vote was split, the drafting process will have to be more consensual. [....]

Ver artigo na Foreign Affairs

EUA e Paquistão à beira da ruptura

 Il est toujours triste de voir une histoire d’amour mal tourner, quand les espérances folles, torpillées par les trahisons secrètes, s’effondrent dans un concert de reproches. C’est précisément ce que vivent aujourd’hui les Etats-Unis et le Pakistan, et que ce soit à Washington ou à Islamabad, on se croirait un peu dans un feuilleton à l’eau de rose. "Comment ont-ils pu nous traiter de la sorte ?" Tel est le ton du débat politique dans les deux capitales. S’il s’agissait d’un couple en désamour, on lui recommanderait de prendre du recul, histoire de panser son orgueil blessé et de retrouver son équilibre. Un avis qui vaut sans doute aussi pour les Etats-Unis et le Pakistan. Ces deux pays ont été amèrement déçus par leur relation – chacun semblant incapable de comprendre ce qui déplaît à l’autre –, mais ils ont également des intérêts communs qui doivent passer avant tout le reste.
"Il y a des points de friction, mais pas de rupture", commente Husain Haqqani, ambassadeur du Pakistan à Washington, qui n’a pas ménagé ses efforts pour éviter la cassure, allant jusqu’à défier les militaires d’Islamabad. Du côté des décideurs américains, nombreux sont ceux qui approuveraient ses propos. Passée la période de recul, la relation ne sera plus la même – avec davantage de respect pour l’indépendance pakistanaise. C’est une bonne chose, même du point de vue des intérêts américains. L’étreinte des Etats-Unis devenait étouffante, et l’armée pakistanaise était considérée par son opinion publique comme un laquais de Washington. C’était une source croissante de honte et d’indignation nationale, comparables à la colère qui a causé la chute d’Hosni Moubarak en Egypte. [...]

Ver notícia no Courrier International

Os principais orçamentos militares a nível mundial

On June 8th China's top military brass confirmed that the country's first aircraft carrier, a refurbishment of an old Russian carrier, will be ready shortly. Only a handful of nations operate carriers, which are costly to build and maintain. Indeed, Britain has recently decommissioned its sole carrier because of budget pressures. China's defence spending has risen by nearly 200% since 2001 to reach an estimated $119 billion in 2010—though it has remained fairly constant in terms of its share of GDP. America's own budget crisis is prompting tough discussions about its defence spending, which, at nearly $700 billion, is bigger than that of the next 17 countries combined.

Ver notícia no The Economist

Quando a China se tornar o nº 1

How will it feel when China becomes the world’s largest economy? We may find out quite soon. A few weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund issued a report that suggested China would be number one within five years.

The projection that the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the US by 2016 included adjustments for the domestic purchasing power of the two countries’ currencies. Some regard this interpretation of IMF data as a dubious move that artificially boosts the size of the Chinese economy. But even using real exchange rates does not defer the day when America is knocked off its perch by very much. A projection by The Economist, made just before Christmas, foresaw China becoming number one in 2019.The ascent of China will change ideas of what it means to be a superpower. Over the course of the American century, the world has got used to the idea that the world’s largest economy was also the world’s most obviously affluent nation. The world’s biggest economy housed the world’s richest people.
As China emerges as an economic superpower, the connection between national and personal affluence is being broken. China is both richer and poorer than the western world. It is sitting on foreign reserves worth $3,000bn. And yet, measured at current exchange rates, the average American is about 10 times as wealthy as the average Chinese.
The relative affluence of US society is one reason why China will not become the world’s most powerful country on the day that it becomes the largest economy. The world’s habit of looking to the US as the “sole superpower” also makes it likely that America’s political dominance will outlast its economic supremacy. America has an entrenched position in global institutions. It matters that the United Nations, the IMF and the World Bank are all situated in the US – and that Nato is built around America.
The US military has a global reach and a technological sophistication that China is nowhere near matching. The US is also ahead on soft power. China, as yet, has no equivalents to Hollywood, Silicon Valley or “the American dream”. [...]

Ver notícia no Financial Times

150 anos de unificação da Itália

Leituras: Limes Rivista Italiana di Geopolitica

Leituras: ‘On China‘ de Henry Kissinger

A zona Euro após Strauss-Kahn, cartoon do Financial Times

Mais de 70 feridos noutra vaga de ataques aos cristãos do Egipto

Al menos setenta y ocho personas han resultado heridas en los últimos ataques sufridos por los cristianos coptos de Egipto en la noche del pasado sábado al domingo, según el ministerio de Salud egipcio. En un primer momento se informó también de dos muertos por arma de fuego, si bien parece que ambas se encuentran finalmente hospitalizadas, aunque en estado crítico.

Los heridos se produjeron cuando varios centenares de hombres atacaron a los manifestantes —en su mayoría cristianos, pero también algunos musulmanes— que, desde hace una semana, mantienen una acampada frente a la radiotelevisión egipcia en El Cairo, en la zona de Maspero, para protestar contra la indefensión que sufre la comunidad copta. Los motivos de los atacantes no están claros, si bien podría ser una represalia por un altercado sucedido un rato antes, cuando un motorista intentó atravesar de manera agresiva el cordón de seguridad establecido por los manifestantes, llegando a dispararles con una escopeta de perdigón. De acuerdo con algunos testimonios, el motorista habría sido atrapado por los jóvenes a cargo de la seguridad del campamento, y apaleado. [...]

Ver notícia no ABC 

A Grécia pondera a saída do Euro?

Greece's economic problems are massive, with protests against the government being held almost daily. Now Prime Minister George Papandreou apparently feels he has no other option: Spiegel Online has obtained information from German government sources knowledgeable of the situation in Athens indicating that Papandreou's government is considering abandoning the euro and reintroducing its own currency.

Alarmed by Athens' intentions, the European Commission has called a crisis meeting in Luxembourg on Friday night. The meeting is taking place at Château de Senningen, a site used by the Luxembourg government for official meetings. In addition to Greece's possible exit from the currency union, a speedy restructuring of the country's debt also features on the agenda. One year after the Greek crisis broke out, the development represents a potentially existential turning point for the European monetary union -- regardless which variant is ultimately decided upon for dealing with Greece's massive troubles. Given the tense situation, the meeting in Luxembourg has been declared highly confidential, with only the euro-zone finance ministers and senior staff members permitted to attend. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Jörg Asmussen, an influential state secretary in the Finance Ministry, are attending on Germany's behalf. [...]

Ver notícia do Der Spiegel

A (falta) de solidariedade no espaço Schengen: cartoon de Glez para o Journal du Jeudi

Eleições na Finlândia: a ascensão dos nacionalistas eurocépticos

The cosy consensus of Finnish parliamentary politics was shattered yesterday, when the True Finns, a populist Eurosceptic party, emerged from near-obscurity to take third place in a closely run general election. The result will be carefully noted by European leaders as efforts continue to restore confidence in the euro.
The leader of the True Finns, Timo Soini (pictured), has pledged to veto future aid packages for struggling euro-zone countries, such as Portugal. (In an unfortunate irony of timing, Portugal's bail-out talks with European and IMF officials began earlier today.) But although the election catapulted the True Finns from just five seats to 39 in the 200-member parliament, their participation in the next government remains uncertain.
The National Coalition Party (NCP), a pro-EU member of the outgoing coalition, lost six seats but still emerged as the largest party. It will now lead negotiations on the composition of the new government. These talks will be fraught with difficulty. “Coalition talks are always a bit complicated in Finland, and this time it will be more difficult than usual,” says Pasi Saukkonen, a political scientist at Helsinki University.
Mari Kiviniemi, the prime minister, said her Centre Party would return to opposition after it lost 16 seats. This means that the NCP will likely seek to form a government with the opposition Social Democrats (SDP), which came second, with 42 seats. The pair would need to recruit at least one other party to gain it a majority. (Minority governments, although common in other Nordic countries, are frowned on in Finland and would only be considered as a last resort.) [...]

Ver artigo no The Economist