março 28, 2010

‘Bruxelas escolheu Tripoli em vez de Berna‘ in Tribune de Genève


«Le réveil est dur pour la Suisse, parce l'Europe a fait son choix: entre Tripoli et Berne, elle a choisi Tripoli», estime le chercheur Hasni Abidi, spécialiste du monde arabe.

l réagit à la levée des restrictions à l'octroi de visas de la Libye et de l'Union européenne, annoncée hier.

«S'il n'y a pas de garantie pour le retour de Max Göldi, si son cas n'a pas été évoqué de manière sérieuse, et non pas seulement orale, lors des négociations, il s'agit d'un lâchage de l'Europe», estime M. Abidi, directeur du Centre d'études et de recherche sur le monde arabe et méditerranéen (CERMAM) à Genève.

Le chercheur fait allusion aux négociations menée par l'Allemagne et la présidence espagnole de l'Union européene (UE) pour résoudre la crise des visas, initiée par Berne en réaction à l'enlèvement par la police libyenne des deux Suisses retenus en Libye.

«J'ai été surpris par le communiqué de la présidence de l'UE. Ils sont allé au-delà de ce que les Libyens espéraient. Il y a des excuses, mais aussi l'engagement que cela ne se reproduira pas», s'étonne M. Abidi.

Le chercheur relève parallèlement que que le communiqué du Conseil fédéral cette semaine «était plutôt positif: 'nous sommes prêt à lever la liste (les 150 à 188 personnalités libyennes - selon les sources - interdits d'espace Schengen), si Tripoli laisse aux Européens l'accès au territoire libyen'», disait le texte des autorités helvétiques mercredi, «alors que la liste était déjà levée», souligne enore l'expert.

Enthousiasme prématuré
L'enthousiasme du président espagnol José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero et de la présidente de la Confédération Doris Leuthard vendredi était exagéré, juge encore l'expert. «Ils avaient oublié la capacité d'instrumentalisation politique de la part des Libyens».

Il ne faut toutefois pas se détourner de l'UE pour autant, la Suisse doit continuer de demander à Bruxelles ne pas l'abandonner. Berne a rendu service à l'UE en débloquant la «liste noire», au tour de l'Union d'aider la Suisse à aboutir la libération de son otage, ajoute Hasni Abidi.

Retenu depuis bientôt deux ans en Libye, Max Göldi est emprisonné près de Tripoli, où il purge une peine de quatre mois de prison pour «séjour illégal».

http://www.tdg.ch/bruxelles-choisi-tripoli-berne-2010-03-28

março 25, 2010

‘Como Kadhafi tem criado armadilhas à Suíça‘ in Tribune de Genève


Comment un régime autocratique comme celui du colonel Muammar Kadhafi parvient-il à déstabiliser une démocratie séculaire comme la Suisse et à semer la discorde entre les pays membres de l’Union européenne (UE)? C’est une des questions essentielles que pose la crise entre Berne et Tripoli. Personne n’aurait imaginé en été 2008 que l’arrestation du fils du «Frère Guide» aurait une portée européenne.

Plusieurs facteurs ont mené à l’impasse actuelle. Un choc culturel entre un régime autocratique à la logique clanique et une démocratie séculaire et paisible. Une Suisse divisée. Une guerre de succession à Tripoli.

Retour sur un fait divers qui s’est transformé en crise diplomatique internationale.

«Œil pour œil, dent pour dent!»
L’affaire Kadhafi n’a cessé de diviser les Suisses. Dès l’arrestation, le 15 juillet 2008, d’Hannibal et d’Aline Kadhafi, soupçonnés d’avoir maltraité des employés. Le couple est libéré sous caution deux jours plus tard. Les méthodes policières font d’emblée débat. Berne avait pourtant averti par courriel qu’étant donné les conséquences politiques éventuelles, les agents de police seraient bien inspirés de prendre «toutes les précautions d’usage lors de cette intervention». Ce qui ne fut pas fait, à en croire les conclusions du rapport du professeur Lucius Caflisch. Si aucun acte illégal n’a été commis, le couple a été traité de manière «inutilement humiliante» et le déploiement de 20 policiers est jugé «excessif». Alors que Berne admet que l’intervention aurait pu être plus nuancée, le Conseil d’Etat genevois refuse de s’excuser. Les classes politiques nationale et cantonale s’entre-déchirent. Berne et Genève se regardent en chien de faïence.

Le clan Kadhafi, pour sa part, fait front commun. Aicha, la sœur d’Hannibal, accourt à Genève et annonce le tarif: ce sera «œil pour œil, dent pour dent! Le plus injuste est celui qui a commencé!» [...]

Ver notícia no Tribune de Genève

Kadhafi: ‘Se a Suíça estivesse situada na nossa fronteira iríamos combate-la‘ in Le Temps


Extraits du discours de Mouammar Kadhafi à Benghazi diffusé sur Al-Jazira le 25 février 2010:

«Nous n’abandonnerons pas le djihad […] Le djihad est un devoir religieux et une [forme] d’autodéfense. C’est la défense de la religion, la lutte pour Allah, la défense du prophète Mahomet, du Coran, des mosquées, de la mosquée Al-Aqsa et de notre indépendance. Alors que le terrorisme, nous le rejetons tous. Nous rejetons également la confusion entre djihad et terrorisme. Cela doit être clair. Le terrorisme perpétré par Al-Qaida et par les escouades de la mort qu’Ayman Al-Zawahiri prétend diriger… est une forme de crime. C’est une maladie mentale […]

Quiconque détruit les mosquées d’Allah sous les yeux de musulmans mérite de voir lancé le djihad contre lui. Si la Suisse était située à notre frontière, nous la combattrions pour avoir détruit les mosquées d’Allah. Le djihad contre ceux qui détruisent les mosquées d’Allah et leurs minarets est le vrai djihad et non du terrorisme […]

Qu’est-ce que «mener le djihad avec ses biens et son âme»? […] C’est mener le djihad contre la Suisse, le sionisme et l’agression étrangère, avec ses biens si on ne peut le faire avec votre âme. Est-ce du terrorisme? Pas du tout.

Le [sens du mot] djihad doit être clair. Le combat sacré des Palestiniens, c’est du djihad. Ce n’est pas du terrorisme. De même que le ciel diffère de la terre, le combat des Palestiniens diffère du terrorisme […]

Tout musulman qui achète des produits suisses est un infidèle. Dites-le à tous les musulmans du monde […] La Suisse est un pays infidèle et immoral qui détruit les mosquées. Il faut déclarer le djihad contre la Suisse par tous les moyens possibles. Boycottez la Suisse, ses produits, ses avions, ses bateaux et ses ambassades. Boycottez cette communauté infidèle et immorale qui attaque les mosquées d’Allah […]

Ver notícia no Le Temps


março 22, 2010

‘Sondagens mostram que alemães se opõem à ajuda à Grécia‘ in Financial Times


Fierce German resistance to helping crisis-hit Greece has emerged in a Financial Times opinion poll that strengthens the hand of Angela Merkel, the chancellor, before a possible European showdown this week over financial aid for Athens.
Germans overwhelmingly opposed offering financial support to Greece as it struggles to control its public sector deficit and are strikingly more hostile than other Europeans, including the British, the FT/Harris poll showed. Almost a third of Germans believed Greece should be asked to leave the eurozone.
Further highlighting flagging support for the euro, some 40 per cent of Germans also thought Europe’s biggest economy would be better off outside the single currency – a significantly higher level of scepticism than in France, Spain or Italy.
The results follow a warning on Sunday by Ms Merkel against raising “false expectations” in financial markets of a eurozone bail-out package for Greece.
In an interview on German radio which appeared to put her at odds with José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, she insisted that Greece had not asked for money and no decision had been taken.
[...]
Ver notícia no Financial Times

março 20, 2010

‘O momento da verdade para o euro‘ in Der Spiegel


Greece's financial difficulties have exposed numerous weaknesses which threaten Europe's common currency. Now, policy makers and economic experts are trying to find ways to stabilize the euro. Spiegel Online takes a look at the proposals.

French Economics Minister Christine Lagarde seems to be itching for a fight. At the beginning of the week, she triggered indignation in Berlin when she blasted Germany's trade surplus in an interview with the Financial Times. The fact that Germany exports more than it consumes domestically hurts the country's European neighbors, Lagarde griped.

On Wednesday, she added more fuel to the fire. Speaking to the French radio station RTL, she said that when an economic union such as the euro zone faces difficulties, "everyone" should contribute to the solution. Countries with a deficit, she said, ought to reduce it, while those with a trade surplus cannot "stand on only one leg." "For instance, perhaps Germany could reduce its taxes a little to stimulate domestic spending," the minister suggested.

Germany's Christian Democratic Chancellor Angela Merkel reacted coolly. "We will not give up our strengths in those areas where we are strong," she said in German parliament on Wednesday. The chancellor may have shown recent interest in the long-shunned concept of a "common economic government" for Europe. But she would like it to be pegged to Europe's economic success stories, not those countries which are lagging behind.

But it is precisely the less competitive countries that pose the biggest problem for the euro zone. The disastrous budget situation in Greece has highlighted the common currency's weaknesses in recent weeks and similar situations in Spain, Ireland, Italy or Portugal could aggravate the situation even further.

Competitive Discrepancies

Critics warn that the euro zone is about to face a crucial test. Since the introduction of the common currency, they argue, the countries within the zone have grown further and further apart instead of growing together into a single economic zone, partly because there are no longer any currency fluctuations to offset competitive discrepancies.

The community now consists of countries like Germany and Finland on the one side, with large current account surpluses, and countries like Greece and Portugal on the other, with massive deficits. The latter, unable to keep up with the continent's powerhouse economies, lived on credit for years, partly as a result of low interest rates.

The logical conclusion would be a common economic policy for the entire EU. But this is an idea that meets with fierce resistance, since hardly any country is willing to relinquish control over its own budgetary and industrial policies.

So what can the community do to avert crises like the one that happened in Greece in the future? What should happen in the event of the worst-case scenarios become reality? Spiegel Online clears up the most important questions surrounding the future of the Euro. [...] Ver notícia completa no Der Spiegel.

março 17, 2010

Cartoon de Chapatte para o International Herald Tribune

A Turquia quer projectar os seus interesses na Europa através da diáspora in Der Spiegel


Leaders of Turkish descent across Europe recently received an invitation to a fancy event in Istanbul, all expenses paid. But what sounded innocent enough appears to have been an attempt by Ankara to get members of the Turkish diaspora to represent Turkish interests abroad. Turkish-German politicians have reacted angrily to the brazen lobbying.

The invitation that numerous Turkish-German politicians received in February sounded enticing: Lunch in a five-star hotel in Istanbul, travel expenses included. The session was titled: "Wherever One of Our Compatriots Is, We Are There Too."

Around 1,500 people of Turkish descent from several European countries accepted the tempting offer. Among the speakers at the event, which took place at the end of February, were businesspeople, NGO representatives and a member of the Belgian parliament of Turkish descent. But the meeting, which has sparked outrage among Turkish-German politicians, was more than a harmless gathering of the Turkish diaspora.

The event was organized by the Turkish government, which is led by the conservative-religious Justice and Development (AKP) party, in an attempt to send a clear message to the participants that they should represent Turkey in other countries. Turks living abroad should take the citizenship of their new home country -- not, however, with the intention of becoming an integrated part of that society, but so they can become politically active, said Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke at the event. Erdogan also compared Islamophobia with anti-Semitism in his speech and said that countries which oppose dual citizenship are violating people's fundamental rights. (Germany, for example, generally does not allow its citizens to hold dual nationality.)

'Crime Against Humanity'

Participants in the session told SPIEGEL ONLINE that the Turkish prime minister then repeated a sentence which had already sparked fierce criticism when he said it during a 2008 speech in Cologne: "Assimilation is a crime against humanity." And even stronger language was apparently used by one representative of the Turkish government. According to Ali Ertan Toprak, the vice chairman of the Alevi community in Germany, who was present at the lunch, one speaker went so far as to say: "We need to inoculate European culture with Turkish culture."

The language in the invitiations already suggested the attitude of the Turkish government toward Turkish-German politicians. Ankara perceives them as being its own. Invitations sent in the name of Turkish Labor Minister Faruk Celik to German Bundestag members were addressed as "my esteemed members of parliament" and Erdogan was referred to as "our prime minister."

Turkish-German politicians and religious representatives in Germany are now voicing sharp criticism of Ankara. "It was very clearly a lobbying event on the part of the Turkish government," said Toprak. He said that he himself was shocked about how openly the Turkish government had expressed its view that Germans of Turkish descent should represent Turkey's interests. "If members of the (conservative) Christian Democratic Union who oppose EU membership for Turkey had been there, they would have got a lot of material for their arguments," Toprak says.

Highly Problematic

Canan Bayram, a member of the Berlin state parliament, said she only attended the meeting because, as an integration spokeswoman for the Green Party in the city, she felt she needed to see what an event like this was like. Of course she covered her own travel and accommodation expenses, she said. "It was important to me that I make it clear that, as a member of a German state parliament, I do not allow the Turkish government to pay my expenses." Sirvan Cakici, a member of the Bremen state parliament for the Left Party who attended the Istanbul meeting, also emphasized that she paid for her expenses herself.

"The Turkish government should pay more attention to the interests of Turks in Turkey, rather than trying to exploit Turkish-Germans as their ambassadors," said Vural Öger, a former member of the European Parliament who was also at the lunch.

Other Turkish-German politicians turned down the invitation because they saw it as highly problematic right from the beginning. "It was clear that this was purely a lobbying event on the part of the Turkish government. As a German politician, I did not belong there," says Özcan Mutlu, a member of the Berlin state parliament for the Greens. "We are not an extended arm of the Turkish government." Memet Kilic, a member of the federal parliament with the Green Party, also declined to take part for similar reasons.

'Unacceptable'

It is not, in fact, the first time that the Turkish government has sought contact to Turkish-German politicians. After the 2009 parliamentary elections, Turkish-German Bundestag members received congratulatory calls from the AKP government. And in October 2009, the Turkish government invited German parliamentarians to an AKP party congress in Ankara.

Ekin Deligöz, a member of the Bundestag for the Greens, says she has in the past received numerous invitations from the Turkish government, which she has turned down out of principle. "I refuse to represent the interests of the Turkish government simply because I was born in Turkey."

Turkish-German politicians feel that, in principle, it is acceptable if the Turkish government tries to seek contact with Bundestag members of Turkish descent. "After all, we act as a kind of bridge," says Kilic. "It's the most normal thing in the world." He adds that it is "unacceptable," however, if Ankara openly says that politicians of Turkish descent should act as a mouthpiece for Turkish interests.

Sevim Dagdelen, a Bundestag member for the Left Party who turned down the invitation to attend the February event, talks of a "parallel foreign policy" on the part of the Turkish government. "I don't want to be part of it," she says. "I find it regrettable and cause for concern that other German politicians are apparently taking part."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,druck-684125,00.html

março 11, 2010

‘A Suécia vai reconhecer o genocídio arménio‘ in The Local


Though the motion to recognize the genocide of Armenians and other ethnic groups - Chaldeans, Syrians, Assyrians and Pontian Greeks - had the backing of members of five of the seven Swedish parliamentary parties, the vote's outcome was uncertain to the last as the parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs had recommended its rejection.

But with four centre-right politicians ignoring the recommendation and choosing to vote with the opposition, the resolution was eventually passed by a single vote.

Turkey immediately elected to recall its ambassador to Sweden, Zergün Korutürk, who said she was "very, very disappointed" by the vote.

"I'm disappointed and somewhat surprised because I expected the parliament to adopt the normal position that it is not the job of parliamentarians to decide whether or not a genocide has taken place.

"That is a questions for historians, and for researchers to examine before reaching a conclusion," she told news agency TT.

Zergün Korutürk added that Sweden and Turkey had enjoyed excellent relations over the last decade but that this was now certain to change.

"Everything is going to regress. This is going to have a drastic impact on our bilateral relations," she said.

Speaking to The Local prior to the vote, Left Party foreign policy spokesperson Hans Linde expressed his view that the time had come for Sweden to take a stand on the issue.

"Firstly, to hinder any repeat and to learn from history. Secondly, to encourage the development of democracy in Turkey - which includes dealing with their own history. Thirdly, to redress the wrongs committed against the victims and their descendants," Linde said.

The foreign affairs committee, in its comments on the motion, had argued for an open debate on the issue. It also stated that the persecution of the Armenians and other ethnic groups in 1915 would have constituted genocide according to the definition adopted by the United Nations in its 1948 genocide convention if it "had it been in force at the time."

But the committee stated that it does not consider it parliament's role to rule on human rights issues and that this should instead be addressed by "open research, open access to facts, and free debate."

Sweden's Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt agreed with the committee's position in comments on his blog on Thursday. Under the heading "Don't politicize history," Bildt wrote:

"A politicizing of history in this way risks undermining ongoing reconciliation processes, plays into the hands of those opposing normality in Armenia and reform in Turkey... and creating new tension in Swedish society."

The committee concluded in its comments that the Turkish government has in recent years made some movement on the issue, with conferences arranged on the subject as well as broader media debate.

The Swedish parliament has voted on the issue before, even approving a report in 2000 recognizing the disappearance of as many as 2.5 million Armenians, Chaldeans, Syrians, Assyrians and Pontian Greeks from April 1915 as genocide. But the recognition was later withdrawn "on a technicality", Hans Linde told The Local.

"The parliament also voted against recognition (by 245 to 37) in 2008. The difference this time is that the Social Democrats have changed their position," he said.

Carl Bildt claimed in his statement that the Social Democrat parliamentary group was forced to change standpoint on the issue as a result of a party congress vote, arguing that there are "several that feel deep unease over this."

According to Sweden's Living History Forum, most researchers are now in agreement that the massacres constituted genocide according to the accepted 1948 UN definition. The exception to this is Turkish researchers. The Turkish government has never recognized the events as a genocide and it is illegal in Turkey to claim that it occurred.

The Living History Forum is a Swedish public authority which works with issues on tolerance, democracy and human rights from both a national and international perspective.

The Local has made attempts to contact the foreign policy spokespersons at the Centre and Liberal (Folkpartiet) parties for a comment.

http://www.thelocal.se/25468/20100311/

março 04, 2010

‘Comissão do Congresso dos EUA reconhece o genocídio arménio‘ in BBC


A US congressional panel has described the killing of Armenians by Turkish forces during World War I as genocide, despite White House objections.

The resolution was narrowly approved by the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Turkey, a key US ally, responded by recalling its ambassador in Washington for consultations. It has fiercely opposed the non-binding resolution.

The White House had warned that the vote would harm reconciliation talks between Turkey and Armenia.

The resolution calls on President Barack Obama to ensure that US foreign policy reflects an understanding of the "genocide" and to label the World War I killings as such in his annual statement on the issue.

It was approved by 23 votes to 22 by the committee.

Within minutes the Turkish government issued a statement condemning "this resolution which accuses the Turkish nation of a crime it has not committed".

The statement also said the Turkish ambassador was being recalled for consultations.

A Turkish parliamentary delegation had gone to Washington to try to persuade committee members to reject the resolution.

'Too important'

In 2007, a similar resolution passed the committee stage, but was shelved before a House vote after pressure from the George W Bush administration.

During his election campaign Mr Obama promised to brand the mass killings genocide.

Before the vote, committee chairman Howard Berman urged fellow members of the committee to endorse the resolution.

"I believe that Turkey values its relationship with the United States at least as much as we value our relations with Turkey," he said.

The Turks, he added, "fundamentally agree that the US-Turkish alliance is simply too important to get side-tracked by a non-binding resolution passed by the House of Representatives".

In October last year, Turkey and Armenia signed a historic accord normalising relations between them after a century of hostility.

Armenia wants Turkey to recognise the killings as an act of genocide, but successive Turkish governments have refused to do so.

Hundreds of thousands of Armenians died in 1915, when they were deported en masse from eastern Anatolia by the Ottoman Empire. They were killed by troops or died from starvation and disease.

Armenians have campaigned for the killings to be recognised internationally as genocide - and more than 20 countries have done so.

Turkish officials accept that atrocities were committed but argue they were part of the war and that there was no systematic attempt to destroy the Christian Armenian people.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8550765.stm

‘Alemanha aconselha Grécia a vender ilhas para saldar dívidas‘ in Diário Económico


"O Estado grego deve desprender-se de forma radical das suas participações em empresas e também vender terrenos, como por exemplo, as suas ilhas desabitadas", sugere Frank Schäffler, membro da comissão parlamentar de finanças, citado pelo jornal "Bild".

O liberal argumenta ainda que a chanceler Angela Merkel "não deve prometer ajudas" à Grécia.

A chanceler democrata-cristã reune-se amanhã em Berlim com o primeiro-ministro grego, Yorgos Papandreu, num encontro em que abordará a situação financeira da Grécia, entre outros assuntos.

Para o democrata-cristão Josef Schlarman, Atenas deve evitar a todo custo a falência, recorrendo, para isso, a qualquer medida que permita obter capital.

"A Grécia possui edifícios, empresas e ilhas desabitadas, que poderão ser usados para o pagamento das dívidas", afirma.

Atenas aprovou ontem um plano de choque com o qual pretende economizar aproximadamente 4,8 mil milhões de euros para sanear a economia grega, que já acumula uma dívida superior a 110% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e um défice de 12,7%.

As medidas contempladas pelo Executivo grego incluem o congelamento de pensões, a redução de salários dos funcionários públicos e a subida de impostos.

http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/alemanha-aconselha-grecia-a-vender-ilhas-para-saldar-dividas_83177.html

‘A república do medo na Turquia‘ in Wall Street Journal


por Soner Cagaptay

Last week's arrests in Turkey of dozens of high-ranking military officers mark the country's latest step toward authoritarianism. Neither Europe nor the United States can afford to ignore Turkey's transformation.

Since coming to power in 2002, the ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ultra-conservative Fethullah Gulen Movement have gained significant leverage over the police and media. Emulating Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the AKP has made selective use of the legal code to effectively silence the country's two largest independent media groups.

Dogan, which owns about half of the media outlets in the country, faces a record $3.5 billion fine on delayed tax payments. Liberal media mogul Mehmet Emin Karamehmet has been sentenced to 12 years in jail on charges related to dealings at his bank for which he was earlier acquitted. Editors now think twice before running stories critical of the government.

Until recently, the judiciary and the military were able to keep government excesses in check. That apparent equilibrium between Islamists and secularists was shattered a few weeks ago, when Gulenist papers published a 5,000-page memo allegedly written by military officers planning a coup.

U.S. diplomats I have talked to and Turkish analysts say that if the military really had planned to overthrow the government, it would have hardly written it down in a detailed 5,000 page document. The idea that the military would bomb Istanbul's historic mosques and shoot down its own planes to precipitate such a coup—as the alleged memo describes—is simply outlandish. The military denies any plans for toppling the government and says much of the document is actually taken from a 2003 war game exercise. It says that the incriminating elements detailing the alleged coup were added to the document.

For the past two years, the Turkish military has been the target of illegal wiretaps and accusations that it is plotting against the government. The question is whether the military will tolerate the assault or strike back, as it has done in the past when it thought the secular nature of the state was threatened.

The Islamist government has also targeted Turkey's other secular bastion—the judiciary. Last month, a Gulenist prosecutor arrested a secular prosecutor in Erzincan. He was officially charged with belonging to an ultranationalist gang known as Ergenekon, which the Gulenists and AKP claim is trying to overthrow the government. Whether that's true or not, there is no doubt the arrest solved a lot of problems for the government. Before his arrest, the Erzincan prosecutor was investigating alleged connections between Gulenist fund raising and Chechen and Hamas terrorists. He was also looking into the armed activities of Ismailaga, a radical Islamist movement.

The Gulenists and the AKP are further targeting the courts by appointing a disproportionate number of Gulenist jurists, thus eroding the secular nature of the judiciary. And the courts seem to have been wiretapped as well. According to media reports, the police have bugged over 130 top judges and prosecutors, as well as the high court of appeals. This is not that hard to believe, given that the justice minister admitted in 2009 that the police have wiretapped 70,000 people.

What is the way forward for Turkey? A military coup isn't the answer and a court ban against the AKP would likely backfire, boosting the party's popularity. The next general elections are scheduled for 2011, but by that time the cards might be stacked too much in favor of the governing parties. That's why the West should press for elections that are free and democratic. The next elections won't be fair if the Turkish media are not independent and if Turks fear that they live in a police state that wiretaps its judiciary and citizens.

Hoping to win Ankara's support for tougher Iran sanctions and more troops in Afghanistan, the U.S. and Europe have so far been hesitant to criticize the AKP-led government. The "pragmatists" fail to realize that an illiberal and Islamist Turkey will be increasingly opposed to Western policies.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704187204575101820058883004.html

‘Geert Wilders vencedor nas eleições municipais holandesas‘ in NRC Handelsblad

In the first test of public opinion since the collapse of prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende's coalition government last month, Wilders's populist Party for Freedom (PVV) led in the city of Almere and was second in The Hague, the only two municipalities where Wilders chose to compete.

The fall of the Dutch cabinet and the upcoming campaign for parliamentary elections overshadowed Wednesday's municipal elections. The actual results for the nearly 400 municipal councils hardly seemed to matter. All interest was focused on the implications for the upcoming parliamentary race.

If voters had elected a new parliament on Wednesday, the PVV would have won between 24 and 27 seats in the 150 seat parliament. In one poll, it would be the largest single party.

That would make it tough for Balkenende's Christian democratic CDA to forge a strong coalition without Wilders. Months of talks between parties, and the resulting policy vacuum, could threaten a fragile economic recovery and cast doubt on the scope of planned budget cuts. Dutch coalition governments are usually made up of two or three parties, but polls show the next coalition will likely need four or more parties to reach a majority in parliament.

The popularity of Wilders, who compares Islam to fascism and the Koran to Adolf Hitler's book Mein Kampf, has dented the image of the Netherlands as a country that has often portrayed itself in the past as a bastion of tolerance.

"The leftist elite still believes in multi-culturalism, coddling criminals, a European super-state and high taxes," Wilders told cheering supporters at a rally in Almere after polling ended on Wednesday. "But the rest of the Netherlands thinks differently. That silent majority now has a voice," he said.

In Almere, the PVV won 21 percent of the vote to Labour's 18 percent, the preliminary results showed. In The Hague, the PVV had 8 seats -- second to Labour with 10 seats. After counting 93 percent of the votes, experts put turnout in the local elections at 56 percent.

Balkenende, now heading a caretaker government, saw his coalition collapse on February 20 after his centre-right CDA failed to persuade its Labour Party partners to extend the Netherlands' military mission in Uruzgan, Afghanistan. The 1,600 Dutch troops serving with Nato there are now likely to withdraw this year as planned.

Both CDA and Labour lost compared to the last local elections in 2006, but Labour appeared to have benefited from its stance over Afghanistan. "The Labour Party is back," party leader Wouter Bos told supporters. "We were declared dead and buried, but with our struggle, humility and ideals we have come back."

Besides Geert Wilders' party, the big winners in Wednesday's elections were right-wing liberals VVD and left-wing liberals D66.

http://www.nrc.nl/international/article2496799.ece/Geert_Wilders_is_major_winner_in_Dutch_polls

março 03, 2010

‘O pecado original da Europa‘ in Wall Street Journal


Europeans are blaming financial transactions arranged by Wall Street for bringing Greece to the brink of needing a bailout. But a close look at the country's finances over the nearly 10 years since it adopted the euro shows not only that Greece was the principal author of its debt problems, but also that fellow European governments repeatedly turned a blind eye to its flouting of rules.

Though the European Commission and the U.S. Federal Reserve are examining a controversial 2001 swap arranged with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Greece's own budget moves, in clear breach of European Union rules, dwarfed the effect of such deals.

Predicaments of the sort Greece is facing—years of overspending, leaving bond investors worried the country can't pay back its debts—weren't supposed to happen in the euro zone. Early on, countries made a pact aimed at preventing a free-spending state from undermining the common currency. The pact required countries adopting the euro to limit annual budget deficits to 3% of gross domestic product, and total government debt to 60% of GDP.

But an examination of budget reports to the EU shows Greece hasn't met the deficit rule in any year except 2006. It has never been within 30 percentage points of the debt ceiling.

Greece has revised its deficit figures, always upward, every year since 1997—often considerably. Several times, the final figure was quadruple what was first reported. Late last year, the Greek government set in motion its current crisis by increasing its 2009 budget-deficit estimate, initially 3.7% of GDP, to nearly 13% of GDP.

Those revisions far exceed the impact of controversial derivative transactions Greece used to help mask the size of its debt and deficit numbers. The 2001 currency-swap deal arranged by Goldman trimmed Greece's deficit by about a 10th of a percentage point of GDP for that year. By comparison, Greece failed to book €1.6 billion ($2.2 billion) of military expenses in 2001—10 times what was saved with the swap, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics authority.

The Greek problem has shown that EU financial institutions don't have enough teeth or expertise to rein in renegade member states, said Jean-Pierre Jouyet, chairman of France's stock-market watchdog and former chief of staff to a president of the European Commission, Jacques Delors. "We need new tools to manage these disequilibriums, because a pact without sanctions is not enough," said Mr. Jouyet.

Constantine Papadopoulos, secretary-general for international economic affairs at the Greek foreign ministry, said Greece entered the euro zone legitimately. "The notion that Greece 'cheated' to get into the euro zone is one of those notions that has stuck in people's minds in Europe and, being the well-crafted piece of propaganda that it is, is extremely difficult to reverse," he said.

Mr. Papadopoulos, a member of the now-ruling Socialist party, said most of the revisions took place because an incoming New Democracy government in 2004 retrospectively revised the way it dealt with military spending. That, he said, had an impact on the recorded budget deficit for the past years of the Socialist government. But Eurostat deemed those revisions necessary, since Greece had "widely underestimated" its military spending.

The Aegean country wasn't alone in breaking the euro zone's rules: A majority of other euro-zone members also failed to meet the debt and deficit requirements at least once over several years, the reports show.

The euro's launch, with 11 founding members in 1999 and Greece joining 18 months later, amounted to a deliberate political gesture by European leaders: Membership in the fledgling currency should be as broad as possible. Italy and Belgium were allowed in with the first group despite well exceeding the debt threshold—a decision that spurred some controversy.

Bringing in Greece, the ancient "cradle of democracy," was symbolically important. In any case, by the late 1990s Greece was being billed as a great economic turnaround story and few eyebrows were raised.

Greece's current crisis—which has weakened the euro and sown concerns about the debt levels of some other European countries—shows Europe's political ambitions for a broad euro are clashing with economic realities. It also suggests Greece's economic success was partly a mirage created by misreported economic statistics.

This is a consequence of a weakness that economists and historians say was built into the common currency at birth: the lack of a coordinated fiscal policy to go with monetary union. From the beginning, the euro has been replete with unresolved tensions, says David Marsh, author of "The Euro," a 2009 book chronicling the birth of the currency. The currency union was seen by some politicians as a way to pull the EU toward political union; others, mainly in Germany, emphasized the need for fiscal and monetary rectitude.

Once a country is in the currency, little can be done to a wayward member because the euro's architects built in no real means of enforcement.

That's in part because of a compromise made in a 1996 European summit in Dublin that placed the decision whether to levy fines on errant governments with other EU governments. That was a victory for Jacques Chirac, then French president, over German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who wanted the fines to be automatic. Since then no country has been fined.

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup and a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, described the 1996 agreement aimed at enforcing the debt and deficit rules as "a paper tiger."

"It is ineffective, because for a while it created the illusion that there were sticks and carrots capable of changing the fiscal behavior of the member states, when in reality there were neither," he wrote in a new research report.

The lax attitude to fiscal rules began early. Eager to get the euro in place in the late 1990s, EU leaders decided 1997 would be the key year. If everyone could meet the targets for that year, the currency could be launched.

The 60% debt goal was simply out of reach—Belgium, for instance, had debt equaling 131% of GDP in 1995. The countries agreed excess debt was acceptable, so long as it appeared to be shrinking. (The euro zone as a whole has never met the 60% debt limit.)

Instead, Europe tried to stand firm on the annual deficits. That triggered a busy year of one-off boosts to government coffers. Countries sold mobile-phone spectrum licenses. France got a payment of more than €5 billion for assuming future pension obligations from the soon-to-be-privatized France Télécom. Germany tried, but failed, to revalue its gold reserves.

Buoyed by these maneuvers—and helped by the tech boom—11 of the 12 countries made the 3% goal for 1997. With much fanfare, the euro was born as the clock ticked from 1998 to 1999, though notes and coins didn't begin circulating for another three years.

With much less fanfare, countries later revised their numbers: Of the original 11 entrants that qualified on the basis of their 1997 data, three—Spain, France and Portugal—later revised their 1997 deficit figures to above 3%. France's budget revision, to 3.3%, wasn't made until 2007.

Greece didn't make the first wave. Its 4.0% deficit in 1997 missed by too much. Even then, technocrats doubted Greek statistics. But in late 1999, eager to keep the euro zone on track, the EU overlooked those concerns. The figures for 1998 appeared better, and European governments agreed that Greece had met the fiscal goals.

They cited a cut in its deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 1998 and a projection of 1.9% for 1999, and saluted Greece for reducing its debt. "The deficit was below the Treaty reference value in 1998 and is expected to remain so in 1999 and decline further in the medium term," the governments proclaimed in December 1999.

None of that turned out to be true. In March 2000, Eurostat said a new accounting standard pushed Greece's 1998 deficit up to 3.2%. Later, in a 2004 report, Eurostat added nearly €2 billion to the original 1998 deficit—largely because Greece had wrongly deemed subsidies to state entities as equity purchases, a device Portugal would later use. In the end, the 1998 figure stood at 4.3%, well above the euro-zone entry criterion.

It got worse. Eurostat found that Greece barely recorded any expenditure on military equipment for years, routinely overestimated tax collections, didn't record hospital costs in the state health system and counted EU subsidies to private entities in Greece as government revenue.

In the face of an economic downturn, others joined the Greeks. France and Germany breached the deficit limit in 2002, 2003 and 2004, setting the example that even the bloc's economic powerhouses didn't have to play by the rules. In 2003, the Netherlands and Italy did too. "When Germany and France got into difficulty, there was not a strong reaction from the European Union," says Jean-Luc Dehaene, a former Belgian prime minister. Finance ministers decided on the response, and "they tend to make a political decision," he says.

Of the 12 early members of the euro, all but Belgium, Luxembourg and Finland have overrun the budget rule at least once. Finally, under political pressure, the norms were softened in 2005 to allow the deficit limit to be breached in an economic downturn.

That was after the tragicomic tale of Greece's 2003 deficit. In March 2004, Greece reported that its 2003 deficit had been €2.6 billion, or 1.7% of GDP. Eurostat put in a footnote calling the figure "provisional," but it was still well below the euro-zone average of 2.7%.

Any Greek celebration was short-lived. Two months later, under pressure from Eurostat, Greece put out new figures. The 2003 deficit was now 3.2%, thanks in part to overestimated tax receipts and EU subsidies. Four months after that, it was up to 4.6%: Greece had failed to include some military expenses, overestimated a social-security surplus, and low-balled its interest expenses. Another revision in March 2005 kicked it up to 5.2%. Later that year, it became 5.7%. What had been reported 18 months earlier as an €2.6 billion deficit was now €8.8 billion.

In short, says Vassilis Monastiriotis of the London School of Economics, Greece "failed to internalize the logic of the euro zone—which is fiscal discipline.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704548604575097800234925746.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopStories

fevereiro 28, 2010

Islamistas radicais ‘infiltraram-se‘ no Partido Trabalhista britânico in Telegraph

The Islamic Forum of Europe (IFE) — which believes in jihad and sharia law, and wants to turn Britain and Europe into an Islamic state — has placed sympathisers in elected office and claims, correctly, to be able to achieve “mass mobilisation” of voters.

Speaking to The Sunday Telegraph, Jim Fitzpatrick, the Environment Minister, said the IFE had become, in effect, a secret party within Labour and other political parties.

“They are acting almost as an entryist organisation, placing people within the political parties, recruiting members to those political parties, trying to get individuals selected and elected so they can exercise political influence and power, whether it’s at local government level or national level,” he said.

“They are completely at odds with Labour’s programme, with our support for secularism.”

Mr Fitzpatrick, the MP for Poplar and Canning Town, said the IFE had infiltrated and “corrupted” his party in east London in the same way that the far-Left Militant Tendency did in the 1980s. Leaked Labour lists show a 110 per cent rise in party membership in one constituency in two years.

In a six-month investigation by this newspaper and Channel 4’s Dispatches, involving weeks of covert filming by the programme’s reporters:

  • IFE activists boasted to the undercover reporters that they had already “consolidated … a lot of influence and power” over Tower Hamlets, a London borough council with a £1 billion budget.
  • We have established that the group and its allies were awarded more than £10 million of taxpayers’ money, much of it from government funds designed to “prevent violent extremism”.
  • IFE leaders were recorded expressing opposition to democracy, support for sharia law or mocking black people. The IFE organised meetings with extremists, including Taliban allies, a man named by the US government as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, and a man under investigation by the FBI for his links to the September 11 attacks.
  • Moderate Muslims in London told how the IFE and its allies were enforcing their hardline views on the rest of the local community, curbing behaviour they deemed “un-Islamic”. The owner of a dating agency received a threatening email from an IFE activist, warning her to close it.
  • George Galloway, a London MP, admitted in recordings obtained by this newspaper that his surprise victory in the 2005 election owed more to the IFE “than it would be wise – for them – for me to say, adding that they played a “decisive role” in his triumph at the polls.

Mr Galloway now says they were one of many groups which supported his anti-war stance and had never sought to influence him.

The IFE has particularly close links to Tower Hamlets council. Seven serving and former councillors said Lutfur Rahman, the current council leader, gained his post with the group’s help.

Some said they were canvassed by a senior IFE official on his behalf. After Mr Rahman was elected, a man with close links to the group, Lutfur Ali, was appointed assistant chief executive of the council with responsibility for grant funding.

This was despite a chequered employment record, a misleading CV and a negative report from the headhunters appointed to consider the candidates. The council’s white chief executive was subsequently forced from his post.

Since Mr Rahman became leader, more council grants have been paid to a number of organisations which our investigation established are closely linked to the IFE.

Funding for other, secular groups was ended or cut. In the borough’s well-known Brick Lane area, council funds were switched from a largely secular heritage trail to a highly controversial “hijab sculpture”, angering many residents who accused the council of “religious triumphalism”.

Schools in Tower Hamlets are told by the council should close for the Muslim festival of Eid, even where most of their pupils are not Muslim.

Mr Rahman refused to deny that an IFE activist had canvassed councillors on his behalf. He said: “There are various people across Tower Hamlets who get excited, who get involved.”

He would not comment on concerns about infiltration, saying they were “party matters”. He said: “If you look at our flagship policies, like investing £20 million to tackle overcrowding, you can see that we are working for everyone.”

The IFE said it did not seek to influence the council and had not lobbied for Mr Rahman. “If anything, existing members of the Labour Party have joined the IFE, rather than the other way round,” it said.

The group insisted it was not a fundamentalist or extremist organisation and did not support violence.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/7333420/Islamic-radicals-infiltrate-the-Labour-Party.html

fevereiro 26, 2010

‘Os mártires modernos do Cristianismo‘ in Der Spiegel


The rise of Islamic extremism is putting increasing pressure on Christians in Muslim countries, who are the victims of murder, violence and discrimination. Christians are now considered the most persecuted religious group around the world. Paradoxically, their greatest hope could come from moderate political Islam.

Kevin Ang is cautious these days. He glances around, taking a look to the left down the long row of stores, then to the right toward the square, to check that no one is nearby. Only then does the church caretaker dig out his key, unlock the gate, and enter the Metro Tabernacle Church in a suburb of Kuala Lumpur.

The draft of air stirs charred Bible pages. The walls are sooty and the building smells of scorched plastic. Metro Tabernacle Church was the first of 11 churches set on fire by angry Muslims -- all because of one word. "Allah," Kevin Ang whispers.

It began with a question -- should Christians here, like Muslims, be allowed to call their god "Allah," since they don't have any other word or language at their disposal? The Muslims claim Allah for themselves, both the word and the god, and fear that if Christians are allowed to use the same word for their own god, it could lead pious Muslims astray.

For three years there was a ban in place and the government confiscated Bibles that mentioned "Allah." Then on Dec. 31 last year, Malaysia's highest court reached a decision: The Christian God could also be called Allah.

Imams protested and disgruntled citizens threw Molotov cocktails at churches. Then, on top of everything, Prime Minister Najib Razak stated that he couldn't stop people who might protest against specific developments in the country -- and some took that as an invitation to violent action. First churches burned, then the other side retaliated with pigs' heads placed in front of two mosques. Sixty percent of Malaysians are Muslims and 9 percent Christians, with the rest made up by Hindus, Buddhists, and Sikhs. They managed to live together well, until now.

It's a battle over a single word, but it's also about much more than that. The conflict has to do with the question of what rights the Christian minority in Malaysia is entitled to. Even more than that, it's a question of politics. The ruling United Malays National Organization is losing supporters to Islamist hardliners -- and wants to win them back with religious policies.

Those policies are receiving a receptive welcome. Some of Malaysia's states interpret Sharia, the Islamic system of law and order, particularly strictly. The once liberal country is on the way to giving up freedom of religion -- and what constitutes order is being defined ever more rigidly. If a Muslim woman drinks beer, she can be punished with six cane strokes. Some regions similarly forbid such things as brightly colored lipstick, thick make-up, or shoes with clattering high heels.

Expelled, Abducted and Murdered

Not only in Malaysia, but in many countries through the Muslim world, religion has gained influence over governmental policy in the last two decades. The militant Islamist group Hamas controls the Gaza Strip, while Islamist militias are fighting the governments of Nigeria and the Philippines. Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen have fallen to a large extent into the hands of Islamists. And where Islamists are not yet in power, secular governing parties are trying to outstrip the more religious groups in a rush to the right.

This can be seen in Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, Indonesia to some extent, and also Malaysia. Even though this Islamization often has more to do with politics than with religion, and even though it doesn't necessarily lead to the persecution of Christians, it can still be said that where Islam gains importance, freedoms for members of other faiths shrink.

There are 2.2 billion Christians around the world. The Christian non-governmental organization Open Doors calculates that 100 million of them are being threatened or persecuted. They aren't allowed to build churches, buy Bibles or obtain jobs. That's the more harmless form of discrimination and it affects the majority of these 100 million Christians. The more brutal version sees them blackmailed, robbed, expelled, abducted or even murdered.

Bishop Margot Kässmann, who was head of the Protestant Church in Germany before stepping down on Feb. 24, believes Christians are "the most frequently persecuted religious group globally." Germany's 22 regional churches have proclaimed this coming Sunday to be the first commemoration day for persecuted Christians. Kässmann said she wanted to show solidarity with fellow Christians who "have great difficulty living out their beliefs freely in countries such as Indonesia, India, Iraq or Turkey."

There are counterexamples as well, of course. In Lebanon and Syria, Christians are not discriminated against, and in fact play an important role in politics and society. And the persecution of Christian is by no means the domain of fanatical Muslims alone -- Christians are also imprisoned, abused and murdered in countries such as Laos, Vietnam, China and Eritrea.

'Creeping Genocide' against Christians

Open Doors compiles a global "persecution index." North Korea, where tens of thousands of Christians are serving time in work camps, has topped the list for many years. North Korea is followed, though, by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, the Maldives and Afghanistan. Of the first 10 countries on the list, eight are Islamic, and almost all have Islam as their state religion.

The systematic persecution of Christians in the 20th century -- by Communists in the Soviet Union and China, but also by Nazis -- claimed far more lives than anything that has happened so far in the 21st century. Now, however, it is not only totalitarian regimes persecuting Christians, but also residents of Islamic states, fanatical fundamentalists, and religious sects -- and often simply supposedly pious citizens.

Gone is the era of tolerance, when Christians enjoyed a large degree of religious freedom under the protection of Muslim sultans as so-called "People of the Book" while at the same time medieval Europe was banishing its Jews and Muslims from the continent or even burning them at the stake. Also gone is the heyday of Arab secularism following World War II, when Christian Arabs advanced through the ranks of politics.

As political Islam grew stronger, devout believers' aggression focused not only on corrupt local regimes, but also more and more on the ostensibly corrupting influence of Western Christians, for which local Christian minorities were held accountable. A new trend began, this time with Christians as the victims.

In Iraq, for example, Sunni terrorist groups prey specifically on people of other religions. The last Iraqi census in 1987 showed 1.4 million Christians living in the country. At the start of the American invasion in 2003, it was 550,000, and at present it is just under 400,000. Experts speak of a "creeping genocide."

'People Are Scared Out of Their Minds'

The situation in the region around the city of Mosul in northern Iraq is especially dramatic. The town of Alqosh lies high in the mountains above Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. Bassam Bashir, 41, can see his old hometown when he looks out his window there. Mosul is only 40 kilometers (25 miles) away, but inaccessible. The city is more dangerous than Baghdad, especially for men like Bassam Bashir, a Chaldean Catholic, teacher and fugitive within his own country.

Since the day in August 2008 when a militia abducted his father from his shop, Bashir has had to fear for his and his family's lives. Police found his father's corpse two days later in the Sinaa neighborhood on the Tigris River, the body perforated with bullet holes. There was no demand for ransom. Bashir's father died for the simple reason that he was Christian.

And no one claims to have seen anything. "Of course they saw something," Bashir says. "But people in Mosul are scared out of their minds."

One week later, militiamen slit the throat of Bashir's brother Tarik like a sacrificial lamb. "I buried my brother myself," Bashir explains. Together with his wife Nafa and their two daughters, he fled to Alqosh the same day. The city is surrounded by vineyards and an armed Christian militia guards the entrance.

Tacit State Approval

Bashir's family members aren't the only ones who came to Alqosh as the series of murders in Mosul continued. Sixteen Christians were killed the next week, and bombs exploded in front of churches. Men in passing cars shouted at Christians that they had a choice -- leave Mosul or convert to Islam. Out of over 1,500 Christian families in the city, only 50 stayed. Bassam Bashir says he won't return until he can mourn for his father and brother in peace. Others who gave up hope entirely fled to neighboring countries like Jordan and even more to Syria.

In many Islamic countries, Christians are persecuted less brutally than in Iraq, but often no less effectively. In many cases, the persecution has the tacit approval of the government. In Algeria, for example, it takes the form of newspapers reporting that a priest tried to convert Muslims or insulted the Prophet Mohammed -- and publishing the cleric's address, in a clear call to vigilante justice. Or a public television station might broadcast programs with titles like "In the Clutches of Ignorance," which describe Christians as Satanists who convert Muslims with the help of drugs. This happened in Uzbekistan, which ranks tenth on Open Doors' "persecution index."

Blasphemy is another frequently used allegation. Insulting the core values of Islam is a punishable offense in many Islamic countries. The allegation is often used against the opposition, whether that means journalists, dissidents or Christians. Imran Masih, for example, a Christian shopkeeper in Faisalabad, Pakistan, was given a life sentence on Jan. 11, according to sections 295 A and B of Pakistan's legal code, which covers the crime of outraging religious feelings by desecrating the Koran. A neighboring shopkeeper had accused him of burning pages from the Koran. Masih says that he only burned old business records.

It's a typical case for Pakistan, where the law against blasphemy seems to invite abuse -- it's an easy way for anyone to get rid of an enemy. Last year, 125 Christians were charged with blasphemy in Pakistan. Dozens of those already sentenced are on death row.

'We Don't Feel Safe Here'

Government-tolerated persecution occurs even in Turkey, the most secular and modern country in the Muslim world, where around 110,000 Christians make up less than a quarter of 1 percent of the population -- but are discriminated against nonetheless. The persecution is not as open or as brutal as what happens in neighboring Iraq, but the consequences are similar. Christians in Turkey, who numbered well over 2 million people in the 19th century, are fighting for their continued existence.

It's happening in the southeast of the country, for example, in Tur Abdin, whose name means "mountain of God's servants." It's a hilly region full of fields, chalk cliffs, and centuries-old monasteries many. It's home to the Syrian Orthodox Assyrians, or Aramaeans as they call themselves, members of one of the oldest Christian groups in the world. According to legend, the Three Wise Men brought the Christian belief system here from Bethlehem. The inhabitants of Tur Abdin still speak Aramaic, the language used by Jesus of Nazareth.

The world is much more familiar with the genocide committed against the Armenians by Ottoman troops in 1915 and 1916, but tens of thousands of Assyrians were also murdered during World War I. Half a million Assyrians are said to have lived in Tur Abdin at the beginning of the 20th century. Today there are barely 3,000. A Turkish district court threatened last year to appropriate the Assyrians' spiritual center, the 1,600-year-old Mor Gabriel monastery, because the monks were believed to have acquired land unlawfully. Three neighboring Muslim villages had complained they felt discriminated against by the monastery, which houses four monks, 14 nuns, and 40 students behind its walls.

"Even if it doesn't want to admit it, Turkey has a problem with people of other faiths," says Ishok Demir, a young Swiss man with Aramaean roots, who lives with his parents near Mor Gabriel. "We don't feel safe here."

More than anything, that has to do with the permanent place Armenians, Assyrians, Greeks, Catholics and Protestants have in the country's nationalistic conspiracy theories. Those groups have always been seen as traitors, nonbelievers, spies and people who insult the Turkish nation. According to a survey carried out by the US-based Pew Research Center, 46 percent of Turks see Christianity as a violent religion. In a more recent Turkish study, 42 percent of those surveyed wouldn't accept Christians as neighbors.

The repeated murders of Christians come, then, as no surprise. In 2006, for example, a Catholic priest was shot in Trabzon on the Black Sea coast. In 2007, three Christian missionaries were murdered in Malatya, a city in eastern Turkey. The perpetrators were radical nationalists, whose ideology was a mixture of exaggerated patriotism, racism and Islam.

Converts in Grave Danger

In even graver danger than traditional Christians, however, are Muslims who have converted to Christianity. Apostasy, or the renunciation of Islam, is punishable by death according to Islamic law -- and the death penalty still applies in Iran, Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia, Mauritania, Pakistan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Even in Egypt, a secular country, converts draw the government's wrath. The religion minister defended the legality of the death penalty for converts -- although Egypt doesn't even have such a law -- with the argument that renunciation of Islam amounts to high treason. Such sentiments drove Mohammed Hegazy, 27, a convert to the Coptic Orthodox Church, into hiding two years ago. He was the first convert in Egypt to try to have his new religion entered officially onto his state-issued identity card. When he was refused, he went public. Numerous clerics called for his death in response.

Copts make up the largest Christian community in the Arab world and around 8 million Egyptians belong to the Coptic Church. They're barred from high government positions, diplomatic service and the military, as well as from many state benefits. Universities have quotas for Coptic students considerably lower than their actual percentage within the population.

Building new churches isn't allowed, and the old ones are falling into disrepair thanks to a lack both of money and authorization to renovate. When girls are kidnapped and forcibly converted, the police don't intervene. Thousands of pigs were also slaughtered under the pretense of confining swine flu. Naturally all were owned by Christians.

The Christian Virus

Six Copts were massacred on Jan. 6 -- when Coptic celebrate Christmas Eve -- in Nag Hammadi, a small city 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of the Valley of the Kings. Predictably, the speaker of the People's Assembly, the lower house of the Egyptian parliament, called it an "individual criminal act." When he added that the perpetrators wanted to revenge the rape of a Muslim girl by a Copt, it almost sounded like an excuse. The government seems ready to admit to crime in Egypt, but not to religious tension. Whenever clashes between religious groups occur, the government finds very secular causes behind them, such as arguments over land, revenge for crimes or personal disputes.

Nag Hammadi, with 30,000 residents, is a dusty trading town on the Nile. Even before the murders, it was a place where Christians and Muslims mistrusted one another. The two groups work together and have houses near each other, but they live, marry and die separately. Superstition is widespread and the Muslims, for example, fear they could catch the "Christian virus" by eating together with a Copt. It comes as no surprise that these murders occurred in Nag Hammadi, nor that they were followed by the country's worst religious riots in years. Christian shops and Muslim houses were set on fire, and 28 Christians and 14 Muslims were arrested.

Nag Hammadi is now sealed off, with armed security forces in black uniforms guarding roads in and out of the city. They make sure no residents leave the city and no journalists enter it.

Three presumed perpetrators have since been arrested. All of them have prior criminal records. One admitted to the crime, but then recanted, saying he had been coerced by the intelligence service. The government seems to want the affair to disappear as quickly as possible. The alleged murderers will likely be set free again as soon as the furor has blown over.

More Rights for Christians?

But there are also a few small indications that the situation of embattled Christians in Islamic countries could improve -- depending on the extent that nationalism and the radicalization of political Islam subsides again.

One of the contradictions of the Islamic world is that the best chances for Christians seem to crop up precisely where a major player actually comes from the political Islam camp. In Turkey it is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a former Islamist and now the country's prime minister, who has promised Turkey's few remaining Christians more rights. He points to the history of the Ottoman Empire, in which Christians and Jews long had to pay a special tax, but in exchange, were granted freedom of religion and lived as respected fellow citizens.

A more relaxed attitude to its minorities would certainly signify progress for Turkey.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-680349,00.html

Líder líbio Khadafi pede ‘Guerra Santa‘ (Jihad) contra a Suíça in BBC


O líder líbio, Muamar Khadafi, convocou nesta quinta-feira uma "Guerra Santa", ou Jihad, contra a Suíça.

Khadafi justificou o pedido afirmando que o país é "infiel" e está “destruindo mesquitas”, em alusão ao resultado de um referendo do ano passado em que os suíços se colocaram a favor de proibir a construção de minaretes.

"Qualquer muçulmano em qualquer parte do mundo que trabalhe com a Suíça é um apóstata (pessoa que abandonou as fé em uma religião), é contra o profeta Maomé, Deus e o Corão", disse.

"As massas de muçulmanos devem ir a aeroportos do mundo islâmico e impedir a aterrissagem de aviões suíços, aos portos e impedir a chegada de navio suíços e inspecionar lojas e mercados para impedir que produtos suíços sejam vendidos."

"Vamos combater a Suíça, o sionismo e a agressão estrangeira", completou.

O líder líbio ressaltou que "existe uma grande diferença entre terrorismo e o direito à jihad, ou resistência armada".

Referendo

No referendo de 29 de novembro, a maioria dos suíços votou a favor de uma lei que proíbe a construção de minaretes.

O governo suíço havia aconselhado a população a votar contra a proposta, argumentando que ela violaria a liberdade religiosa.

O Ministério das Relações Exteriores suíço disse que não comentaria as declarações de Khadafi.

A Líbia rompeu relações com a Suíça em 2008 após a prisão de um filho de Khadafi em um hotel suíço, acusado de maltratar empregados.

Ele foi libertado pouco depois da detenção, e as acusações foram retiradas, mas a Líbia cortou a venda de petróleo para a Suíça, retirou bilhões de dólares depositados em bancos suíços e prendeu dois empresários suíços que trabalhavam em território líbio.

A Líbia afirma que as prisões dos empresários e a do filho de Khadafi não têm ligação.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/portuguese/noticias/2010/02/100225_libia_rc.shtml

fevereiro 25, 2010

‘Espanha, o próximo campo de batalha do Euro‘ in Wall Street Journal


Greece set off the crisis rattling the euro zone. Spain could determine whether the 16-nation currency stands or falls.

The euro zone's No. 4 economy, Spain has an unemployment rate of 19%, a deflating housing bubble, big debts and a gaping budget deficit. Its gross domestic product contracted 3.6% in 2009 and is expected to shrink again this year, leaving Spain in its deepest and longest recession in a half-century.

At the center of the crisis are millions of Spaniards like Olga Espejo. The 41-year-old lost her administrative job at a laboratory in Madrid, then found a temporary post replacing someone on sick leave—until that job was abolished. Her husband and her sister have also been laid off—all among the one in nine working Spaniards who have lost jobs in the past two years.

Each gets an unemployment check of at least €1,000 a month, or about $1,350, part of a generous social safety net that Madrid says it won't cut. But Ms. Espejo's benefit runs out in July and her husband's in May.

"What prospects do any of us have now?" Ms. Espejo asks.

That question haunts Spain and the entire euro zone as the Continent faces its biggest economic crisis since the common currency launched in 1999. Worries over Greece's ability to finance its huge debts have spread to other, weaker members of the euro zone, but these same fears are now nipping at Spain's heels. The problem is that, thanks largely to its membership in the euro, Spain lacks tried-and-true means to heal its economy.

Spain can't devalue its currency to make its exports more attractive and its sunny beach resorts cheaper because the euro's value is driven by Germany's bigger, competitive industrial economy. Madrid can't slash interest rates or print money to spur borrowing and spending, because those decisions are now made in Frankfurt by the European Central Bank.

Spain could still try to stimulate growth through tax cuts and spending increases. But it has already mounted enormous stimulus spending that swelled its budget deficit to 11.4% of GDP last year, and it would need to sell more bonds to raise fresh cash. Buyers of Spanish government bonds, spooked by the prospect of a Greek default, have already demanded higher interest rates from Madrid.

"Spain is the real test case for the euro," says Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "If Spain is in deep trouble, it will be difficult to hold the euro together...and my own view is that Spain is in deep trouble."

The government rejects talk of crisis. "The fundamentals of our economy are solid," Elena Salgado, Spain's economy minister, said in an interview. Ms. Salgado said the country's big banks are sound, its economic statistics credible and its companies dynamic enough to maintain their share of export markets. She pointed out that Spain was running budget surpluses until the financial crisis struck, and its government debt has grown from a very low base.

Euro-zone heavyweights Germany and France have pledged to support Greece if necessary. But any bailout for Spain—whose $1.6 trillion economy is nearly double those of troubled euro-zone partners Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined—would be far costlier.

A "shock and awe" infusion aimed at renewing faith in Spain's finances, should it be necessary, would take roughly $270 billion, according to an estimate by BNP Paribas. It estimates similar confidence-restoring moves in Greece, Ireland or Portugal would require $68 billion, $47 billion and $41 billion, respectively.

Some observers, to be sure, believe Spain will ride out the troubles. Emilio Ontiveros, president of AFI, a financial analysis firm in Madrid, says recovery is in sight in the second half of the year. "We've had some luck. France and Germany, our biggest markets, are beginning to grow," he said. This should be enough to stop unemployment rising much beyond 20%, a level Spain has coped with as recently as the late 1990s.

Most economists see three options for Spain.

The first is for the government to do nothing, leaving the economy to wallow through years of high unemployment and debt defaults. The second is for the government to take a more active role, slashing its spending while taking unpopular measures to boost the supply side of the economy, including overhauling a rigid labor market.

On Tuesday, Spain's top central banker strongly urged this path, calling in a speech for swift government action to reduce the budget deficit and reform the labor market.

"If the reforms come late or are insufficient, our future is undoubtedly worrying," Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Angel Fernández Ordoñez said.

Mr. Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute is among the pessimists who doubt the government will take this course. He thinks Spain's chronic inability to restart growth will lead it to contemplate a third option: splitting the euro zone asunder by withdrawing from the common currency. That would permit a devaluation that would, at a stroke, increase Spain's competitiveness and allow the economy to grow again.

A more mainstream view holds that no government, Spain's included, would dare to brave the financial chaos such a move would unleash.

"It's extremely costly to leave the euro," said Jean Pisani-Ferry of Bruegel, a pro-European think tank in Brussels. The moment a government hinted at a possible devaluation, there would be a run on the banks and an effective default on every euro financial contract with that country. "The day you start to admit that you're thinking about it, you're in a financial mess."

The government has announced plans, starting with tax rises and spending cuts this year, to slice the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013, a program financial analysts have described as credible. It forecasts that public debt will crest at around 74% of GDP in 2012, compared with 113% today in Greece and Italy.

Still, Socialist Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero has drawn criticism from economists for saying he will deal with the crisis without hurting the country's social programs.

"That's not a plan, but an announcement," said Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quirós, president of Freemarket International Consulting in Madrid. As a result, he said, Spaniards don't yet understand that their comfortable way of life, cushioned by the state, is about to change. Spaniards still "think like Cubans and live like Yankees," he said.

Spain's troubles are a mirror of the boom years after it and 10 other countries entered the monetary union in 1999. The euro was meant to cement a single market across Europe, reducing cross-border costs for trade, investment and travel.

In close to a decade of good times, Spaniards overtook the Italians and approached the French in terms of what their salaries could buy. Spanish energy, infrastructure, utility and banking companies spread world-wide.

But seeds of trouble were being planted. Spain's wages grew fast, making its economy less and less competitive. Low euro interest rates, set with low-inflation Germany in mind, began generating a housing bubble.

Spanish house prices more than doubled in real terms in the decade ending in 2008. At the peak, the country of 45 million people was building more houses than Germany, France and Italy—combined population 200 million—put together.

Spain's housing market has been slow to adjust, likely delaying recovery. The Bank of Spain estimates prices have fallen 15% from their highs, about half the U.S. peak-to-trough decline. "In the U.S. market, the day of reckoning came quickly. In Spain, it's been postponed," said Mr. Ontiveros of AFI.

The housing bust shows how Spain differs from Greece in the current crisis. Economists say Greece's troubles stem from its profligate government. Madrid ran budget surpluses for years— but Spain's private sector went on a debt-fueled spending binge.

Spanish private and public debt rose an average of 14.5% a year from 2000 to 2008, according to McKinsey Global Institute. Total debt peaked at the end of 2008 at $4.9 trillion, or 342% of GDP—a higher percentage than the level in the U.S. and most major economies except Britain and Japan. Six-sevenths of that is owed by the private sector.

McKinsey expects households, indebted companies and real-estate developers to shed debt, a widespread "deleveraging" that is likely to trigger defaults and harm the banking system. Most analysts say Spain's banking problems are concentrated in the country's 45 cajas, regional savings banks usually run by local politicians that often went deep into real-estate lending.

Nonperforming loans in Spain's banks and regional savings institutions are now estimated at 5% of the total, up from 3.2% a year ago. Santiago López Díaz, a bank analyst at Credit Suisse in London, estimates this may underestimate the total by 30% to 40%.

Roughly half of Spain's estimated 1.3 million unsold houses are now on the books of cajas and banks, which have been slow to sell them because they don't want to realize losses. Financial institutions "have become the biggest realtors in Spain," said Fernando Encinar, co-founder of Idealista.com, Spain's largest property Web site.

The government has tried to force cajas to merge into stronger institutions, and has set up a fund to encourage them to restructure and bolster capital. Analysts expect cajas to post big losses this year that will likely force the government to raise more money to boost the fund.

Massive joblessness could further slow Spain's climb out of debt. Even in good times, unemployment never got below about 8%. Now the rate is nudging 20% overall and close to 45% among young people—statistics that reveal to economists a deeply flawed employment market.

Wages are set through a complicated system of bargaining with trade unions that imposes wage increases on firms even if their business can't afford it. Because wages are inflexible, Spanish companies can cut labor costs only by firing workers. Yet some workers, hired on so-called indefinite contracts, are deeply entrenched, not least because they are entitled to 45 days' severance pay per year of service.

So, when the economy turns down, those on temporary contracts bear the brunt. When prospects brighten, companies think long and hard before inking more indefinite contracts.

That bodes poorly for Eduardo García, 55, who was huddling in line outside a job center recently in Madrid's Santa Eugenia neighborhood. Unemployed for the first time, Mr. García worked for 25 years at a book-and-magazine distributor that closed in November. His wife and 20-year-old daughter are also unemployed. Mr. Garcia said he has had no work offers. "At my age, it will be difficult."

Madrid has vowed to reform the labor market. One proposal would reduce the severance-pay entitlement for new workers by 12 days, to 33 days.

Fernando Eguidazu, director-general of the Circulo de Empresarios, a business association, said Madrid has avoided locking horns with labor. Demonstrations against a proposal to raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 took place in several Spanish cities Tuesday and Wednesday.

Unions could resist new labor proposals, he said, but it's a needed step: "If they [the government] try to keep being nice to everybody, we are wasting time and the people and the markets are losing confidence."

That sentiment is already apparent in the market for insurance against a Spanish default. The price to insure €10 million in Spanish bonds for five years— just €2,350 three years ago— rose this month to €171,750 before falling to €125,000, said data firm Markit Group Ltd.

That translates into increased borrowing costs for Spain, which now pays about 0.8 percentage points more than Germany to borrow money for 10 years.

For years to come, Spain will largely be at the mercy of wary bond investors to finance its governments, banks and companies. The national government says it will have to raise €76.8 billion this year and pay back an additional €35 billion of maturing bonds.

Amid it all, Mr. Bernaldo de Quirós predicts, investors' worries will ebb and flow over what he calls "a real risk of default" as they await decisive government action. "They more time you lose," he said of the government, "the more devastating the adjustment has to be."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704454304575081481536661858.html

fevereiro 24, 2010

Ilhas Malvinas: aliança sul-americana contra a ‘ameaça colonial‘ britânica à região in Times

It has been a good few days for Latin American unity and rhetoric against the evils of Western imperialism, and yesterday was no exception.

At centre stage was the row over oil rights in the South Atlantic as a British oil rig began drilling 60 miles north of the Falkland Islands. As 32 regional leaders gathered in Mexico yesterday, however, the talk turned to a diplomatic onslaught against the “old colonialism” and a new formal alliance, words that reopened historic wounds left over from the days of conquest, empire and slavery.

“The question of Las Malvinas is not only a question about a sovereignty dispute,” President Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina, using the Spanish name for the Falklands, said. “It has to do with the history of the region and the world over the last two or three centuries.”

Mrs Kirchner got the approval she wanted, with the rest of the Rio Group signing a declaration affirming their backing “for the legitimate rights of the republic of Argentina in the sovereignty dispute with Great Britain”. She did more than rally support for its cause over drilling for oil in the South Atlantic — she framed the dispute in terms of a colonial threat to the entire region.

Argentina’s claim to oil rights was an “exercise in self-defence” of the continent, she said. After the meeting, the President said that winning such strong backing in the territorial dispute was an important development but warned that “even more important will be to achieve a change of attitude in the big powers, in this case those which have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council”.

Mrs Kirchner has made the recovery of the islands a key theme of her presidency. At home the arrival of the Ocean Guardian oil rig has revived long-simmering resentment at what is perceived as a foreign occupation.

Furthermore, current estimates put Falklands reserves at anywhere between 8 billion and 60 billion barrels, meaning a potential bonanza for whoever claims ownership of the oil.

The regional leaders insisted on negotiations between Britain and Argentina, flagging up UN resolutions that require both parties to abstain from unilateral actions with respect to the islands while they remain under contention.

“We have approved a declaration in which leaders of countries and governments present here reaffirm their support for Argentina’s legitimate rights in its sovereignty dispute with the United Kingdom,” President Calderón of Mexico said.

Last week Mrs Kirchner moved to obstruct supplies to the oil operations, imposing shipping controls requiring all maritime traffic moving through Argentine-claimed waters to the Falklands to seek its authorisation. She sought to dispel speculation yesterday over the potential for conflict, insisting that Argentina would not blockade the islands but instead pursue legal options to halt the exploration.

However, she kept up the war of words. In the 21st century “the great challenge is going to be the management of natural resources, renewable and non-renewable — in this case oil — and fundamentally also the behaviour of the big powers of the world, who systematically break UN resolutions but impose on other countries compliance with those same resolutions referring to other issues when it affects their interests”.

This double standard was one of “principal sources of tension” in international relations, she added.

It was a theme leapt upon by the staunchly anti-imperialist President Chávez of Venezuela, who decried Britain’s presence in the Falklands as “the most gross expression of the old colonial era, allied to neocolonialism”.

The day before, he had addressed his remarks to the Queen, saying: “Things have changed. We are no longer in 1982. If conflict breaks out, be sure Argentina will not be alone like it was back then.” British control of the islands was “anti-historic and irrational”, he continued, adding: “Why do the English speak of democracy but still have a queen?”

He did not waste the opportunity to raise his own colonial complaint — Dutch control of the Caribbean territories of Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire “in the noses of Venezuela”, their closest neighbour.

Yesterday, at a meeting in Cancún between the Rio Group and the Caribbean Community (Caricom), leaders discussed plans for a pan-American alliance that would exclude Canada and the United States — a move backed by the continent’s vocal left-wing governments.

This could serve as an alternative to the Organisation of American States (OAS), which includes the North American neighbours and has been the main forum for regional affairs in the past 50 years.

David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, rejected accusations that Britain was acting illegally. “British sovereignty in respect of the Falklands is absolutely clear in international law ... There is no question about it,” he said. “The exploration that is going on off the Falklands ... is fully within international law, fully based on precedent.” The islanders had the right to a decent life and to build their own economic future, he added.

Chris Bryant, the junior foreign minister, said that the Rio Group’s position was nothing new and that it was not unexpected that Latin American countries would throw their weight behind one of their own.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7038490.ece