abril 23, 2009

Cartoon: charme de Obama não seduz no Irão

‘Oferta de regresso voluntário apenas foi aceite por dois marroquinos‘ in Le Maroc Aujourd'hui


Les chiffres relatifs au plan de retour volontaire des immigrés résidant en Espagne sont très en dessous des chiffres qui avaient été annoncés par le ministre espagnol du Travail et de l’Immigration, Celestino Corbacho. «Jusqu’au mardi 24 mars, 3.926 demandes ont été présentées selon les chiffres du secrétariat d’Etat espagnol à l’Immigration. Les trois communautés étrangères les plus nombreuses ont été les Equatoriens (1.688 demandes) suivis des Colombiens (713) et les Argentins (393). Pour ce qui est des Marocains, aucun chiffre n’a été dévoilé. Cependant, selon les statistiques qui avaient été présentées il y a 2 mois par ce département, seulement 2 Marocains ont présenté leur demande. Ce chiffre ne fait que confirmer que les Marocains rejettent catégoriquement cette initiative», déclare à ALM Kamal Rahmouni, président de l’Association des travailleurs et immigrés marocains en Espagne (ATIME).
Et d’ajouter que «Beaucoup de Marocains voudraient retourner vivre dans leurs pays d’origine mais les conditions imposées par ce plan leur sont défavorables. Et pour cause, le bénéficiaire est condamné à renoncer à son permis de résidence et de travail. Il ne pourra retourner vivre en Espagne qu'après trois années après son départ. Quel Marocain accepterait cette condition? De plus ce plan ne concerne que les immigrés au chômage alors que bon nombre d’immigrés résidant en Espagne sont sans papiers», déplore M. Rahmouni. La veille, la secrétaire d’Etat espagnole à l’Immigration, Consuelo Rumi avait annoncé que 3.000 immigrés ont déposé des demandes pour bénéficier de ce plan de retour. Dans des déclarations à la Radio nationale espagnole (RNE), Mme Rumi a estimé à 7.000 le nombre des immigrés qui devraient adhérer à cette initiative durant les prochains mois. Le plan adopté en septembre 2008, prévoit de verser de l’argent en deux tranches à tout immigré au chômage souhaitant retourner dans son pays d’origine : 40% du total de l’indemnité de chômage lors de l’inscription, et 60% payés dans le pays d’origine, un mois plus tard. «Pour bénéficier d’une somme respectable, il faut que l’immigré ait cotisé pendant 8 ans. Cependant, le retour n’est pas une question lié à l’argent. En rentrant dans son pays d’origine, l’immigré sera contraint de laisser sa famille et ses enfants dans le pays d’accueil», souligne le président de l’ONG. Selon M. Rahmouni, il faut que le gouvernement marocain prenne des mesures pour favoriser le retour des immigrés. «Il n'y a pas de mesures concrètes. La mise en place d’un plan stratégique s’impose».
Pour rappel, le gouvernement espagnol avait décidé d’adopter ces mesures en raison du brusque coup d’arrêt économique subit par le pays. Le plan du gouvernement espagnol concerne des immigrés originaires des 19 pays avec lesquels l’Espagne a déjà souscrit des accords bilatéraux en matière de sécurité sociale, et d’autres pays qui ont des mécanismes de protection similaire. Parmi les pays concernés par ce plan, figurent notamment le Maroc et l’Équateur, gros pourvoyeurs d’immigrés en Espagne.

http://www.aujourdhui.ma/couverture-details67915.html
JPTF 3009/04/23

abril 18, 2009

‘ASEAN: um gigante com pés de barro‘ in Courrier International


L'instabilité chronique dans plusieurs pays membres affaiblit l'organisation régionale pourtant ambitieuse. L'annulation du dernier sommet en Thaïlande en est la meilleure illustration.

L'ajournement du sommet de Pattaya [au sud de Bangkok] entre les dix membres de l'Association des nations de l'Asie du Sud-Est (ASEAN) et les dirigeants japonais, chinois et sud-coréens n'est pas qu'un camouflet cuisant pour le gouvernement thaïlandais. C'est aussi un terrible revers pour ceux qui espéraient que la coopération aide à juguler la crise économique mondiale en Asie. L'incident pourrait en outre servir de catalyseur et entraîner de nouveaux développements dans l'instabilité politique que traverse depuis longtemps maintenant la Thaïlande [voir CI n° 963, du 16 avril 2009].

Le fiasco thaïlandais a aussi mis fin aux espoirs de l'ASEAN de faire de ce rendez-vous, auquel sont également conviés des responsables indiens, australiens et néo-zélandais, l'événement annuel de la coopération panasiatique, sorte de G16 continental sur lequel les regards du monde entier auraient été braqués. L'ajournement vient rappeler à quel point nombre de pays d'Asie sont politiquement instables, et ce bien avant que l'impact de la récession se soit fait pleinement sentir. Si l'Indonésie a organisé, le 9 avril, des élections législatives qui se sont parfaitement déroulées – preuve des progrès remarquables accomplis par sa démocratie depuis le renversement du président Suharto il y a onze ans –, les tensions politiques en Malaisie ne sont toujours pas en voie de résolution, en dépit de la récente nomination d'un nouveau Premier ministre.

L'échec de la rencontre en Thaïlande a par ailleurs empêché que soit finalisé un accord sur la création d'un fonds de 120 milliards de dollars [94 milliards d'euros] visant à protéger les pays de la région des crises monétaires et à leur permettre de maintenir leur croissance économique sans s'inquiéter inutilement de leur balance des paiements. L'essentiel de cette somme aurait dû être versé par la Chine, la Corée du Sud et le Japon. Au bout du compte, le fonds sera très vraisemblablement créé, mais avant tout parce que les trois Etats du Nord-Est asiatique y trouvent chacun leur intérêt. Tous souhaitent en effet diminuer leur dépendance commerciale à l'égard d'un Occident affaibli et ont donc besoin de soutenir la croissance dans la région. Tous entendent utiliser leurs abondantes réserves pour s'acheter une influence politique. Tous veulent montrer que la coopération financière asiatique est une réalité dont le reste du monde doit prendre acte. Et la Corée, qui accueillera le prochain sommet du G20 [en accédant à la présidence du groupe en 2010], souhaite utiliser l'ASEAN comme plate-forme pour promouvoir sa propre influence dans le monde.

Voilà qui en dit plus sur les intérêts de ces trois pays que sur la véritable capacité de coopération de l'organisation panasiatique. Quoi que laissent penser les accords de libre-échange et autres textes ronflants, l'ASEAN n'a plus l'influence de l'époque où elle pouvait compter sur certains acteurs clés, des poids lourds tels l'Indonésien Suharto, le Singapourien Lee Kwan Yew et le Malaisien Mahathir Mohamad. L'actuel président de l'Indonésie Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono jouit sans doute de quelques bonnes références pour assumer un rôle moteur, mais cela n'est ni dans son caractère consensuel, ni dans l'intérêt d'une Indonésie essentiellement préoccupée par des enjeux intérieurs et peu désireuse de jouer un rôle sur la scène internationale. Du côté des autres pays membres, les Philippines sont pour l'heure relativement stables, mais souvent considérées comme un protagoniste en marge. Singapour a perdu de sa superbe tandis que le Vietnam a gagné une certaine ampleur, mais part de très loin.

Cette incapacité à coopérer est criante et s'est même traduite par une absence de front commun face à la Chine à propos des rivalités territoriales en mer de Chine méridionale [voir CI n° 961, du 1er avril 2009]. Ces derniers temps, les Philippines, le Vietnam et la Malaisie ont tous irrité Pékin avec leurs propres revendications territoriales, mais n'ont fait aucun effort pour résoudre les différends qui les opposent les uns aux autres. Les Philippines ont même signé avec la Chine un contrat d'exploration pétrolière enfreignant un accord de l'ASEAN.Les pays d'Asie du Sud-Est ont abordé la crise économique mondiale en position de force, avec de vastes réserves de devises étrangères et sans avoir créé de bulle spéculative majeure. Ces économies très ouvertes sur l'extérieur demeurent toutefois vulnérables face à une récession prolongée. Elles risquent en effet de souffrir de la chute du prix des matières premières et du ralentissement des transferts de fonds de leurs ressortissants travaillant à l'étranger. A présent, il leur est donc indispensable de rassembler le maximum de ressources additionnelles possibles. Par chance, les principaux détenteurs de devises étrangères se trouvent être leurs voisins. Toutefois, l'accès à ces fonds pourrait s'avérer improductif si l'instabilité politique décourageait l'investissement privé, minait la confiance des consommateurs et paralysait les processus décisionnels.

La Thaïlande, qui s'appuie pourtant sur une économie diversifiée, a déjà pâti des récentes luttes de pouvoirs. La situation pourrait encore s'aggraver alors que les "chemises rouges" pro-Thaksin entendent poursuivre leur mouvement, paralysant ainsi l'actuel gouvernement d'Abhisit Vejjajiva ainsi que l'avaient fait les "chemises jaunes" (anti-Thaksin) avec le gouvernement précédent. En Malaisie, le nouveau Premier ministre a pris ses fonctions avec une cote de popularité encore plus faible que son prédécesseur, tandis que le parti au pouvoir, discrédité par les soupçons de corruption, de meurtre et de ventes d'armes, essuyait une sévère défaite à des élections partielles [le 7 avril]. Dans ces deux pays, les questions fondamentales de gouvernance restent très disputées. Même s'il n'existe aucun risque de voir se répéter le scénario de la crise asiatique de 1997-1998, le fiasco du sommet de l'ASEAN de Pattaya montre clairement que les problèmes politiques de l'Asie du Sud-Est ne concernent pas seulement la région.

http://www.courrierinternational.com/imprimer.asp?obj_id=96773
JPTF 2009/04/18

abril 14, 2009

‘A candidatura turca divide Barack Obama e Nicolas Sarkozy‘ in France 24h


Le président Nicolas Sarkozy a réaffirmé dimanche sur TF1 son hostilité à une entrée de la Turquie dans l'Union européenne, après le soutien apporté par le président américain Barack Obama à une telle adhésion.

"Je travaille main dans la main avec le président Obama, mais s'agissant de l'Union européenne, c'est aux pays membres de l'Union européenne de décider", a déclaré M. Sarkozy, interrogé sur la déclaration de son homologue, en duplex depuis Prague où il participe au sommet UE-Etats-Unis.

"J'ai toujours été opposé à cette entrée et je le reste. Je crois pouvoir dire qu'une immense majorité des Etats membres (de l'UE) est sur la position de la France", a-t-il ajouté.

"La Turquie, c'est un très grand pays allié de l'Europe et allié des Etats-Unis. Elle doit rester un partenaire privilégié, ma position n'a pas changé", a déclaré le chef de l'Etat.

M. Obama avait estimé un peu plus tôt devant les dirigeants de l'UE à Prague que l'entrée de la Turquie dans l'Union européenne "constituerait un signal important" envoyé à ce pays musulman.

Les pourparlers d'adhésion de la Turquie au bloc européen, entamés en octobre 2005, marquent actuellement le pas. Certains pays comme la France ou l'Allemagne sont opposés à la perspective de voir ce pays entrer dans l'UE et privilégient une association étroite avec lui.

Les Etats-Unis et le Royaume-Uni, en revanche, militent depuis longtemps pour une adhésion.

Vendredi et samedi, au sommet de l'Otan à Strasbourg/Kehl/Baden Baden, la Turquie s'était opposée à la nomination du Premier ministre danois, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, au poste de secrétaire général de l'Alliance avant de s'y ranger. Le Premier ministre turc, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, avait indiqué samedi que ce revirement suivait le fait que le président Obama se fût porté "garant" d'un certain nombre d'engagements, qu'il n'a pas précisés.

La désignation de M. Rasmussen, "posait des problèmes à nos amis turcs, parce qu'il y avait l'histoire des terroristes kurdes avec le PKK et puis l'histoire des caricatures (de Mahomet NDLR). Mais nous nous étions déterminés à ne pas céder parce que M. Rasmussen est un homme démocratique, un homme de grande qualité", a dit M. Sarkozy.

Interrogé sur d'éventuelles concessions, il a répondu qu'il "a fallu convaincre nos amis turcs de notre fermeté. Le président Obama a joué un rôle considérable, s'est montré comme un vrai leader, et à la sortie, à l'unanimité, on a décidé que ce serait Rasmussen".

La Turquie reprochait au candidat son soutien à un journal danois qui avait publié des caricatures de Mahomet en 2005 et son refus de fermer la chaîne de télévision Roj TV, considérée par Ankara comme porte-voix des rebelles kurdes du Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK).

Selon plusieurs journaux turcs, Ankara a obtenu l'assurance que Roj TV sera prochainement interdite d'émettre depuis le Danemark, que M. Rasmussen allait adresser "un message positif" sur l'affaire des caricatures, ainsi que la désignation de responsable turcs à des postes clés de l'Otan.

http://www.france24.com/fr/20090405-turquie-adhesion-union-europeenne-barack-obama-nicolas-sarkozy-opposition-hostilite-tf1-discours
JPTF 2009/04/14

abril 08, 2009

A cimeira da NATO: cartoon de Marquard Otzen no jornal Politiken.dk

‘O significado da liberdade‘ in The Economist


At first glance, the resolution on “religious defamation” adopted by the UN’s Human Rights Council on March 26th, mainly at the behest of Islamic countries, reads like another piece of harmless verbiage churned out by a toothless international bureaucracy. What is wrong with saying, as the resolution does, that some Muslims faced prejudice in the aftermath of September 2001? But a closer look at the resolution’s language, and the context in which it was adopted (with an unholy trio of Pakistan, Belarus and Venezuela acting as sponsors), makes clear that bigger issues are at stake.

The resolution says “defamation of religions” is a “serious affront to human dignity” which can “restrict the freedom” of those who are defamed, and may also lead to the incitement of violence. But there is an insidious blurring of categories here, which becomes plain when you compare this resolution with the more rigorous language of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948 in a spirit of revulsion over the evils of fascism. This asserts the right of human beings in ways that are now entrenched in the theory and (most of the time) the practice of liberal democracy. It upholds the right of people to live in freedom from persecution and arbitrary arrest; to hold any faith or none; to change religion; and to enjoy freedom of expression, which by any fair definition includes freedom to agree or disagree with the tenets of any religion.

In other words, it protects individuals—not religions, or any other set of beliefs. And this is a vital distinction. For it is not possible systematically to protect religions or their followers from offence without infringing the right of individuals.

What exactly is it the drafters of the council resolution are trying to outlaw? To judge from what happens in the countries that lobbied for the vote—like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan—they use the word “defamation” to mean something close to the crime of blasphemy, which is in turn defined as voicing dissent from the official reading of Islam. In many of the 56 member states of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, which has led the drive to outlaw “defamation”, both non-Muslims and Muslims who voice dissent (even in technical matters of Koranic interpretation) are often victims of just the sort of persecution the 1948 declaration sought to outlaw. That is a real human-rights problem. And in the spirit of fairness, laws against blasphemy that remain on the statute books of some Western countries should also be struck off; only real, not imaginary, incitement of violence should be outlawed.


In much of the Muslim world, the West’s reaction to the attacks of September 2001, including the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, has been misread as an attack on Islam itself. This is more than regrettable; it is dangerous. Western governments, and decent people everywhere, should try to ensure that the things they say do not entrench religious prejudice or incite acts of violence; being free to give offence does not mean you are wise to give offence. But no state, and certainly no body that calls itself a Human Rights Council, should trample on the right to free speech enshrined in the Universal Declaration. And in the end, given that all faiths have undergone persecution at some time, few people have more to gain from the protection of free speech than sincere religious believers.

The United States, with its tradition of combining strong religious beliefs and religious freedom, is well placed to make that case. Having taken a politically risky decision (see article) to re-engage with the Human Rights Council and seek election as one of its 47 members, America should now make the defence of real religious liberty one of its highest priorities.

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13413974&source=most_commented

JPTF 2009/04/08

abril 04, 2009

‘A overdose fatal do Ocidente‘ por Gabor Steingart in Der Spiegel



The G-20 has agreed on plans to fight the global downturn. But its approach will only lay the foundation for the next, bigger crisis. Instead of "stability, growth, jobs," the summit's real slogan should have been "debt, unemployment, inflation."

Now they're celebrating again. An "historic compromise" had been reached, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the conclusion of the G-20 summit in London, while US President Barack Obama spoke of a "turning point" in the fight against the global downturn. Behind the two leaders, the summit's motto could clearly be seen: "stability, growth, jobs."

When the celebrations have died down, it will be easier to look at what actually happened in London with a cool eye. The summit participants took the easy way out. Their decision to pump a further $5 trillion (€3.72 trillion) into the collapsing world economy within the foreseeable future, could indeed prove to be a historical turning point -- but a turning point downwards. In combating this crisis, the international community is in fact laying the foundation for the next crisis, which will be larger. It would probably have been more honest if the summit participants had written "debt, unemployment, inflation" on the wall. The crucial questions went unanswered because they weren't even asked. Why are we in the current situation anyway? Who or what has got us into this mess?

The search for an answer would have revealed that the failure of the markets was preceded by a failure on the part of the state. Wall Street and the banks -- the greedy players of the financial industry -- played an important, but not decisive, role. The bank manager was the dealer that distributed the hot, speculation-based money throughout the nation.

But the poppy farmer sits in the White House. And during his time in office, US President George W. Bush enormously expanded the acreage under cultivation. The chief crop on his farm was the cheap dollar, which eventually flooded the entire world, artificially bloating the banks' balance sheets, creating sham growth and causing a speculative bubble in the US real estate market. The lack of transparency in the financial markets ensured that the poison could spread all around the world.

There are -- even in the modern world -- two things that no private company can do on its own: wage war and print money. Both of those things, however, formed Bush's response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Many column inches have already been devoted to Bush's first mistake, the invasion of Baghdad. But his second error -- flooding the global economy with trillions of dollars of cheap money -- has barely been acknowledged.

No other president has ever printed money and expanded the money supply with such abandon as Bush. This new money -- and therein lies its danger -- was not backed by real value in the form of goods or services. The measure may have had the desired effect -- the world economy revived, at least initially. And US consumption kept the global economy going for years. But the growth rates generated in the process were illusionary. The US had begun to hallucinate.

The addiction to new cash injections was chronic. The US had allowed itself to sink into an abject lifestyle. It sold more and more billions in new government bonds in order to preserve the appearance of a prosperous nation. To make matters worse, private households copied the example of the state. The average American now lives from hand to mouth and has 15 credit cards. The savings rate is almost zero. At the end of the Bush era, 75 percent of global savings were flowing into the US.

The president and the head of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, knew about the problem very well. Perhaps the Americans even knew just how irresponsible their actions were -- at any rate, they did everything they could to hide them from the world. Since 2006, figures for the money supply -- in other words, the total number of dollars in circulation -- have no longer been published in the US. As a result, a statistic which is regarded by the European Central Bank as a key indicator is now treated as a state secret in the US.

Only on the basis of independent estimates can the outside world get a sense of the internal erosion of what was once the strongest currency in the world. These estimates report a steep rise in the amount of money in circulation. Since the decision to keep the figures confidential, the growth rate for the expansion of the money supply has tripled. Last year alone, the money supply increased by 17 percent. As a comparison, the money in circulation in Europe grew by a mere 5 percent during the same period.

But the change of government in Washington has not brought a return to self-restraint and solidity. On the contrary, it has led to further abandon. Barack Obama has continued the course towards greater and greater state debt -- and increased the pace. One-third of his budget is no longer covered by revenues. The only things which are currently running at full production in the US are the printing presses at the Treasury.

At the summit in London, delegates talked about everything -- except this issue. As a result, no attention was given to the fact that the crisis is being fought with the same instrument that caused it in the first place. The acreage for cheap dollars will now be extended once again. Only this time, the state is also acting as the dealer, so that it can personally take care of how the trillions are distributed.

The International Money Fund was authorized to double, and later triple, its assistance funds -- by borrowing more. The World Bank is also being authorized to increase its borrowing. All the participating countries want to help their economies through state guarantees, which, should they be made use of, would result in a huge increase in the national debt. The US is preparing a new, debt-financed economic stimulus package. Other countries will probably follow its example.

We live in truly historic times -- in that respect, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is right. The West may very well be giving itself a fatal overdose.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-617224,00.html
JPTF 2009/04/04

abril 01, 2009

G20: ‘Divididos nos mantemos‘ in The Economist


World leaders are descending on London, just as anti-capitalist protesters prepare to unfurl their banners. Barack Obama, who remains widely popular at home and abroad, met Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, on Wednesday April 1st. Mr Obama conceded that “We're not going to agree on every point”. On the eve of the G20 summit the two men should be concerned that too little is being done to respond to the worst economic slump since the 1930s. This week the OECD, for example, concluded that global output will shrink by 2.7% in 2009, sharply down on previous estimates.

As worrying, the various leaders gathering in London are not agreed on how to sort out the economic mess. One risk is that the group, if it seeks consensus, will produce an anodyne statement that adds little or nothing to the existing efforts to respond to the global slump. A greater risk is that the summit is so badly divided, and the outcome is so feeble, that dashed expectations actually worsen confidence.

Broadly, the leaders are trying to tackle five sets of issues. The first, and perhaps least contentious, is the need to recapitalise banks and get credit flowing. All big countries with troubled banks have acted assertively on this. America, long the laggard, at last has a detailed plan that has been, mostly, well-received. Now it is a question of waiting to see whether and how the bail-outs, more lending and other initiatives will help to stimulate economies.

But no consensus exists on the need for fiscal stimulus. Just how much governments of rich countries should borrow and spend to boost their economies is disputed. America would like them to commit to stimulus packages of 2% of GDP for this year and again for 2010. But Germany and France disagree vehemently. They argue that their economies rely much more on what are known as “automatic stabilisers”—tools such as unemployment insurance payments, which increase automatically in a recession—thus they do not need as much discretionary stimulus spending as countries, such as America, where welfare payments are much less generous. Deep differences remain. On Tuesday the Japanese prime minister, Taro Aso, said that Germany’s reluctance to use public spending aggressively stemmed from its lack of understanding of the importance of fiscal mobilisation.

A failure to agree on co-ordinating fiscal plans opens the door to forms of protectionism in stimulus packages motivated by worries about stimulus benefits “leaking” abroad. Such policies could complicate the G20’s efforts to come up with ways to deal with what is already the biggest collapse in trade since the second world war. That collapse is not the result of countries imposing tariffs or devaluing currencies, as happened in the 1930s. Still, the World Bank has tracked the actions of the G20 countries in recent months and found that 17 have taken steps that retard trade, often by subtle means. Thus the leaders in London need to commit to much more than a vague promise to resist protectionism. Ideally, they will lay out a comprehensive list of measures going beyond tariffs and export subsidies—to include, for example, domestic subsidies and discriminatory procurement provisions in stimulus packages—and commit to not use them even where permitted by their existing international trade commitments. A general commitment to free trade, though welcome, would not suffice.

On financial regulation, transatlantic differences have narrowed, with America agreeing to broaden its scope to encompass institutions such as hedge funds. But open disagreement remains possible. Mr Sarkozy’s reported threat to “get up and leave” rather than endorse a G20 statement that promises too little on regulating financial markets could make it all the harder to get a deal on fiscal stimulus.

The last big issue for the G20 is what to do about the dramatic collapse in financial flows to developing and emerging economies, the largest of which are represented in the group. The least contentious part of the response is likely to be commitments to meet aid budgets and support more lending by institutions such as the World Bank and the regional development banks, possibly through greater rich-country lending to these institutions.

More fraught, though within reach, are efforts to augment the resources of the IMF and to get the fund to deploy this money rapidly, something which emerging ones are ambivalent about. Success will probably involve getting China to offer to lend the IMF a large sum of money from its massive reserves. But this is unlikely without at least a clear promise of more say in running the fund, hitherto an institution dominated by Europe and America. Reform of the fund will mean giving emerging members more vote shares. Inclusion as part of the Financial Stability Forum, a group of regulators and central bankers charged with the technicalities of financial supervision, may also make them more willing to support an expansion of the fund. But China and other large emerging economies want more than incremental reform. Aware of the complexity of negotiating far-reaching changes to vote shares at the IMF, they would like interim measures demonstrating good faith, such as a commitment to let the leadership of the fund to be decided “irrespective of nationality”. But this is something that G20 finance ministers failed to endorse at a meeting in March.

http://www.economist.com/finance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13401931
JPTF 2009/03/02

março 29, 2009

Há um ano atrás, na cimeira da NATO de Bucareste: ‘com aliados como estes‘... in The Economist


The NATO summit in Bucharest was meant to be a celebration of France's full return to the fold and a show of long-term commitment to stabilising Afghanistan. Instead it turned into a particularly rancorous dispute about matters closer to home: how far and how fast NATO should continue to expand, and how it should deal with a more aggressive Russia.

The meeting became a battle of wills between Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, cast in a naysaying role that is usually reserved for French leaders, and George Bush, attending his last NATO summit and hoping to be remembered for extending “the circle of freedom”.

On the face of it, the issue was arcane: whether Ukraine and Georgia should be upgraded from “intensified dialogue” with NATO to a “membership action plan” (MAP), essentially a promise to join NATO after meeting a set of political and military benchmarks. But to many, particularly America and ex-communist states, this was a question of principle: NATO had to keep its vow to welcome fragile democracies, and should give no veto to Russia, especially in its current aggressive mood.

Germany says Russia's president-elect, Dmitry Medvedev, should get time to settle in without being forced into a spat with NATO. “What is the rush?” asked one senior official. Earlier the French prime minister, François Fillon, said his country opposed granting MAP “because we think it is not the right response to the balance of power in Europe”. Britain, too, was sceptical. But observers reckoned that, should Germany yield to American pressure, other resistance would melt.

At a bad-tempered foreign ministers' meeting on the opening night, Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, told colleagues Georgia would not be fit to join until it had resolved the “frozen conflicts” over two Russian-backed statelets on its soil. Condoleezza Rice, his American opposite number, retorted that these conflicts were “not Georgia's problem, but Russia's”. She added that Germany's own NATO membership in 1955 had come at a time when that country was divided.

After much haggling, the allies declared that the two countries “will become members of NATO” eventually—but that a decision on MAP would only be taken by foreign ministers in December. Even that could be a humiliation for the Georgians, whose volatile president, Mikheil Saakashvili, privately compared anything short of MAP to appeasement of the Nazis.

Even the enlargement that was supposed to be straightforward—expanding membership of NATO (and later of the European Union) to the Balkans—turned ugly because of an old row over Macedonia's name, shared by a Greek province. Macedonia had agreed to the formulation “Republic of Macedonia (Skopje)”; Greece wanted a compound formula such as “Upper Macedonia” or “New Macedonia” and blocked the invitation. The allies said Macedonia would join once the issue of the name had been settled.

NATO invited Croatia and Albania, boosted ties with Montenegro and Bosnia, and offered Serbia a friendly hand. Franco-American friendship took a big step forward as France offered more troops to fight the Taliban and signalled its intention to return in 2009 to NATO's integrated military structure. Mr Bush compared Mr Sarkozy's arrival with the “latest incarnation of Elvis” and endorsed an EU plan to develop stronger defences.

With Vladimir Putin due to join the summit on April 4th, and then to host Mr Bush the next day in the resort of Sochi, the American president was balancing the need to maintain working relations with the Kremlin while not being seen to yield to threats. “The cold war is over. Russia is not our enemy,” said Mr Bush, restating his assurance that America's plan to set up its missile-defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic was not aimed at Russia.

To America's delight, its allies embraced missile defence, recognising its “substantial contribution” to their security, and agreeing to seek ways to extend a shield to countries like Turkey. American sweeteners—offering to accept Russian liaison officers, promising not to switch on the system until a threat (from Iran) emerges, and holding out for Russian participation—impressed European sceptics.

Yet at its core, the dispute within NATO is about the renewed threat from Russia. Members of “old Europe” may hope to avoid a clash with the Kremlin, but many countries of “new” Europe say the struggle has already begun. For them security lies in expanding the frontiers of what was once the transatlantic alliance to the Black Sea and ultimately to the Caspian.

Even its strongest advocates recognise that such expansion raises questions about the purpose of the alliance: should it be mainly a military organisation, or a political club of democracies? Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, questioned whether the promise of mutual defence from armed attack enshrined in Article 5 of NATO's charter was becoming “diluted”.

Mr Sikorski wants NATO to move military infrastructure east. He complains that NATO hesitates even to make intelligence assessments of perils from Russia. Others want more attention to non-conventional threats, given last year's cyber-attack on Estonia, blamed on Russia. “We do a disservice to Russia by not taking it seriously,” said Toomas Ilves, Estonia's president.

http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10981434
JPTF 2009/03/29

março 26, 2009

Presidência checa da UE diz que medidas de Obama para combater a crise são um ‘caminho para o inferno‘ in Financial Times


European Union hopes for a new era in relations with the US were thrown into chaos on Wednesday when the holder of the EU presidency condemned American remedies for the global recession as “the road to hell”.

Barely a week before Barack Obama is due to arrive in Europe on his first official visit as US president, Mirek Topolanek, the Czech Republic’s prime minister, put the 27-nation EU on a collision course with Washington.

His attack compounded the confusion that has engulfed EU policy after the Czech leader lost a no-confidence vote in the country’s parliament on Tuesday, forcing him to offer his government’s resignation midway through its six-month EU presidency.

Mr Topolanek said EU leaders had been disturbed at a summit in Brussels last week to hear calls from Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, for more aggressive policies to fight the global downturn.

“The US Treasury secretary talks about permanent action and we, at our spring council, were quite alarmed at that . . . The US is repeating mistakes from the 1930s, such as wide-ranging stimuluses, protectionist tendencies and appeals, the Buy American campaign, and so on,” he told a European parliament session in Strasbourg. “All these steps, their combination and their permanency, are the road to hell.”

US officials made no comment on the remarks. But the Obama administration says it took great pains to ensure that the Buy American provisions in the $787bn (€579bn) stimulus that the president signed into law last month were consistent with World Trade Organisation rules. It followed, therefore, that any attempt to make them permanent would continue to be consistent with WTO rules.

EU diplomats said it was the most extraordinary outburst from a political leader in charge of running the EU’s affairs since Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister, caused uproar in 2003 when he likened a German socialist member of the European parliament to a Nazi concentration camp guard.

Other leaders of EU member states, including Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, disagree with US calls for big fiscal stimuli to battle the recession. But they have couched their opposition in more diplomatic language than Mr Topolanek’s.

The Czech leader was speaking eight days before Mr Obama was due to arrive in London for a G20 summit of the world’s developed and emerging economies.

After the summit and a Nato meeting in France and Germany, the US president is due to fly to Prague for an EU-US summit, at which the Czech Republic will represent all 27 member states.

Relations between the Obama administration and Mr Topolanek’s government have been delicate in recent weeks because of signals from Washington that Mr Obama may reassess plans to deploy parts of a US anti-missile shield in the Czech Republic, a project to which the Topolanek government has been committed.

Mr Obama has vigorously opposed the view that the Great Depression was caused by too much spending, rather than too little, a view held by a small handful of rightwing economists.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d3fa8fa-1975-11de-9d34-0000779fd2ac.html

JPTF 2009/03/26

março 22, 2009

‘Como a China vê o mundo‘ in The Economist


It is an ill wind that blows no one any good. For many in China even the buffeting by the gale that has hit the global economy has a bracing message. The rise of China over the past three decades has been astonishing. But it has lacked the one feature it needed fully to satisfy the ultranationalist fringe: an accompanying decline of the West. Now capitalism is in a funk in its heartlands. Europe and Japan, embroiled in the deepest post-war recession, are barely worth consideration as rivals. America, the superpower, has passed its peak. Although in public China’s leaders eschew triumphalism, there is a sense in Beijing that the reassertion of the Middle Kingdom’s global ascendancy is at hand.

China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, no longer sticks to the script that China is a humble player in world affairs that wants to focus on its own economic development. He talks of China as a “great power” and worries about America’s profligate spending endangering his $1 trillion nest egg there. Incautious remarks by the new American treasury secretary about China manipulating its currency were dismissed as ridiculous; a duly penitent Hillary Clinton was welcomed in Beijing, but as an equal. This month saw an apparent attempt to engineer a low-level naval confrontation with an American spy ship in the South China Sea. Yet at least the Americans get noticed. Europe, that speck on the horizon, is ignored: an EU summit was cancelled and France is still blacklisted because Nicolas Sarkozy dared to meet the Dalai Lama.

Already a big idea has spread far beyond China: that geopolitics is now a bipolar affair, with America and China the only two that matter. Thus in London next month the real business will not be the G20 meeting but the “G2” summit between Presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao. This not only worries the Europeans, who, having got rid of George Bush’s unipolar politics, have no wish to see it replaced by a Pacific duopoly, and the Japanese, who have long been paranoid about their rivals in Asia. It also seems to be having an effect in Washington, where Congress’s fascination with America’s nearest rival risks acquiring a protectionist edge.

Reds under the bed
Before panic spreads, it is worth noting that China’s new assertiveness reflects weakness as well as strength. This remains a poor country facing, in Mr Wen’s words, its most difficult year of the new century. The latest wild guess at how many jobs have already been lost—20m—hints at the scale of the problem. The World Bank has cut its forecast for China’s growth this year to 6.5%. That is robust compared with almost anywhere else, but to many Chinese, used to double-digit rates, it will feel like a recession. Already there are tens of thousands of protests each year: from those robbed of their land for development; from laid-off workers; from those suffering the side-effects of environmental despoliation. Even if China magically achieves its official 8% target, the grievances will worsen.

Far from oozing self-confidence, China is witnessing a fierce debate both about its economic system and the sort of great power it wants to be—and it is a debate the government does not like. This year the regime curtailed even the perfunctory annual meeting of its parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), preferring to confine discussion to back-rooms and obscure internet forums. Liberals calling for greater openness are being dealt with in the time-honoured repressive fashion. But China’s leaders also face rumblings of discontent from leftist nationalists, who see the downturn as a chance to halt market-oriented reforms at home, and for China to assert itself more stridently abroad. An angry China can veer into xenophobia, but not all the nationalist left’s causes are so dangerous: one is for the better public services and social-safety net the country sorely needs.

So China is in a more precarious situation than many Westerners think. The world is not bipolar and may never become so. The EU, for all its faults, is the world’s biggest economy. India’s population will overtake China’s. But that does not obscure the fact that China’s relative power is plainly growing—and both the West and China itself need to adjust to this.

For Mr Obama, this means pulling off a difficult balancing act. In the longer term, if he has not managed to seduce China (and for that matter India and Brazil) more firmly into the liberal multilateral system by the time he leaves office, then historians may judge him a failure. In the short term he needs to hold China to its promises and to scold it for its lapses: Mrs Clinton should have taken it to task over Tibet and human rights when she was there. The Bush administration made much of the idea of welcoming China as a “responsible stakeholder” in the international system. The G20 is a chance to give China a bigger stake in global decision-making than was available in the small clubs of the G7 and G8. But it is also a chance for China to show it can exercise its new influence responsibly.

The bill for the great Chinese takeaway
China’s record as a citizen of the world is strikingly threadbare. On a host of issues from Iran to Sudan, it has used its main geopolitical asset, its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, to obstruct progress, hiding behind the excuse that it does not want to intervene in other countries’ affairs. That, sadly, will take time to change. But on the more immediate issue at hand, the world economy, there is room for action.

Over the past quarter-century no country has gained more from globalisation than China. Hundreds of millions of its people have been dragged out of subsistence into the middle class. China has been a grumpy taker in this process. It helped derail the latest round of world trade talks. The G20 meeting offers it a chance to show a change of heart. In particular, it is being asked to bolster the IMF’s resources so that the fund can rescue crisis-hit countries in places like eastern Europe. Some in Beijing would prefer to ignore the IMF, since it might help ex-communist countries that have developed “an anti-China mentality”. Rising above such cavilling and paying up would be a small step in itself. But it would be a sign that the Middle Kingdom has understood what it is to be a great power.

http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=13326106
JPTF 2009/03/22

março 19, 2009

A crise e os seus reflexos na emigração laboral na Europa in Der Spiegel, 18 de Março de 2009


With unemployment soaring, many European Union countries want the migrant workers they once attracted to go home as quickly as possible. They are sparing no expense or effort to encourage them to leave.

Chultem Choijusuren was watching television in Ulan Bator when he decided to climb aboard the globalization bandwagon. According to an ad he had seen, companies in the Czech Republic were paying young mechanics "€1,000 a month." Most people in the Mongolian steppes were already familiar with the small Eastern European country. After all, many young people from here had studied in Prague during the two countries' Socialist pasts.

Choijusuren borrowed the equivalent of €3,000 ($3,900) from local banks. Part of the money was to pay the €1,500 fee that the Mongolian employment agency was charging for securing him a job. He would also need some money to start life abroad, and the one-way train ticket from the Mongolian capital Ulan Bator to Prague, via Moscow, cost €700 ($910). His wife and eight-year-old daughter waved goodbye as the train left the station.

The Mongolian planned to stay in Europe for perhaps half a year, save a few thousand euros, and return home to open his own car repair shop.

Choijusuren is part of the army of migrants that has moved westward from developing countries in recent years, with one in three chosing Europe as their destination. After the European Union's eastward expansion in 2004, tens of thousands of Asians found jobs in Polish, Czech and Slovak factories, where they were welcomed with open arms to fill the jobs that one million Poles and hundreds of thousands of Czechs, Balts, Slovaks and Hungarians had left behind when they in turn migrated to the wealthier EU countries. Ireland, Great Britain and Sweden, unlike Germany and Austria, had immediately opened their borders to citizens of the new member states, and Spain followed suit two years later.

Construction companies and restaurants in these countries were only too pleased to employ the cheap labor from the East. More and more families hired Polish women to clean their houses or nannies with Slavic accents to put their children to bed. The migrants' wages were modest, and yet in some cases three times as high as they were at home. The newcomers sent as much of their earnings home as possible, injecting capital that helped their hometowns gain unprecedented prosperity.

Once the global economic crisis erupted those days were over. Unemployment has risen twice as fast in Great Britain and Spain as elsewhere in Europe. Now the citizens of Western European countries need the jobs themselves, and their governments are resorting to all kinds of tricks and incentives to get rid of the wiling hands they once needed so badly.

Globalization has turned 200 million people into migrant workers in the last few decades. One fifth of them are Europeans, less than one tenth are Africans and 3 percent are from Latin America. Now the trend is reversing itself, a shift that generally affects those who came from Europe's poorest regions and from emerging and developing nations. Officials at the United Nations International Labor Organization (ILO) fear that 30 million people around the globe could lose their livelihoods by the end of the year.

No More Promised Land

There is considerable temptation to cope with the crisis by taking protectionist steps. In many places, guest workers are now only perceived as competitors. In Great Britain, domestic labor union members recently prevented Italian and Portuguese mechanics working for a Sicilian company from modernizing an oil refinery. British blue-collar workers also protested against the use of Spanish and Polish workers in the construction of a power plant in Nottinghamshire. In London, the Minister of State for Borders and Immigration announced that restrictions would be necessary "to protect British jobs."

"Great Britain was the Promised Land for me," says Andrzej Wlezinski, a Pole, "but that is now over." The 40-year-old plumber plans to return to Lodz, a city in central Poland, at the end of March. He came to London, he says, immediately after the EU's eastward expansion. The British public, who had had to put up with the shoddy work of expensive local tradesmen for decades, welcomed Wlezinski and others like him with plenty of work and good pay. The then Home Secretary Charles Clarke called men like Wlezinski "jewels of our nation."

That is now history. Since last fall, Wlezinski has been constantly searching the Internet for temporary jobs. He used to earn £90 (€114 or $148) a day, but now he counts himself lucky to be making half as much -- if he can find work at all, that is. But he needs to earn £200 ($284) a week to pay for his small dark room, his subway tickets and a few hamburgers. Lodz, he says, is cheaper and a city with "less stress." If he travels home now, after five years in England, he will be carrying hardly anything of value in his two suitcases. Saving money was not an option.

Elsewhere in Europe, migrants willing to return to their native countries can qualify for substantial assistance. Spanish aid organizations, for example, pay travel costs and €450 ($590) in spending money. The country is especially eager to part ways as smoothly as possible with its more than 700,000 Romanians, the largest group of registered immigrants in the country.

The government in Madrid has even taken things a step further by advertising its "Voluntary Return Program" in ads on subway trains and buses. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the Socialist prime minister, hopes that the program will help oust 100,000 of the 2.8 million non-Europeans living legally in Spain.

By last December, 240,000 of them had already filed for unemployment benefits, and that number is likely to have increased since then. If migrant workers agree not to return to Spain for three years, they are repaid their contributions to the unemployment insurance system: 40 percent upfront, and the balance upon return to their native countries.

However, the offer has not been very successful so far, with only 2,000 foreigners signing up in the first three months. Most of them were Ecuadorians who, after Moroccans, are the largest non-European immigrant group.
Those who have worked in Spain legally for an extended period of time are not permitted to take more than €12,000 ($15,600) with them when they leave. This is barely enough to open a small shop or taxi company at home. Dora Aguirre, president of Rumiñahui, an Ecuadorian association in Madrid, has given advice many of her compatriots. "Those who are leaving now," she says, "wanted to do so anyway. These are people at retirement age."

Men who have lost their construction jobs in recent months are often unable to leave. They have brought their wives and children to Spain and are usually stuck in a credit trap. They have bought cars that no one wants now, and some took out mortgages on condominiums with four or five other people. Because no one is willing to take over their share, they have to continue making their payments. "Most of them believe that this is a better place to sit out the economic crisis than Latin America," says Aguirre.

No European country has attracted as many guest workers in recent years as Spain. Since Madrid joined the EU in 1986, the economy has enjoyed consistently high growth rates, and recently was even above the average of the countries that use the euro as their currency. There was more construction in Spain than anywhere else, and there was plenty to do for the country's 5.3 million foreigners, who now make up more than 10 percent of the population.

The Rise of Xenophobia

When the Socialists came into power in 2004, they introduced an amnesty, giving papers to 700,000 illegal non-Europeans with jobs, so as to collect their contributions to the social security system. In addition, Spanish companies recruited workers in Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Mauritania, Poland and Bulgaria to pick fruit and vegetables, or to work in hotels, restaurants or the construction sector.

Now the labor market can no longer absorb any additional immigrants, says Labor Minister Celestino Corbacho. Tens of thousands of Spanish citizens are now applying for seasonal jobs picking olives and strawberries in Andalusian villages, thereby displacing the foreign workers. This has inevitably poisoned the climate for migrant workers.

In the Madrid region, governed by the conservative People's Party of Spain, the police force was instructed to crack down on foreigners during I.D. checks and arrest a predetermined number of foreigners without residency or work permits every week. Xenophobia is also growing in France, where President Nicolas Sarkozy, during his election campaign in 2007 had already elevated the "fight against tax and social fraud" to the status of a national responsibility. The deportation quota has been increased considerably since then.

The mood has now shifted to one of overt xenophobia in Italy, which, like Spain, only became a country of immigration in the last decade. Illegal immigrants cannot be "handled with kid gloves," Interior Minister Roberto Maroni said, and the government of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promptly unveiled a new security law. It calls for a fee for residency permits and proof of a minimum level of income. Under the law, the homeless will be fingerprinted, doctors will be required to report patients without papers and citizens' patrols are to be authorized to pick up illegal immigrants. Anyone working in the country illegally will be deported, and those who refuse to leave can be sent to prison for up to four years.

The EU has long had plans to uniformly regulate immigration. But in light of the economic crisis, some governments are looking for a back door. They want to delay new rules that would allow Romanian and Bulgarian workers free access to the entire Western European labor market this year, and 11 EU countries want to hold on to existing restrictions. This, in turn, aggravates the situation in the EU's poorest countries. Authorities in Bucharest, for example, expect to see at least half of the roughly three million Romanians working abroad return home.

Aneliya, 38, and her husband Georgiy, 40, have already returned from Manta Rota, a sunny vacation spot in Portugal's southern Algarve region, to Dolno Ossenovo in southwestern Bulgaria. The construction company where the Bulgarian had worked for eight years notified workers in the summer that it expected a decline in contracts. At home, in her village in the Rila Mountains, Aneliya plans to pick tobacco for €150 ($195) a month, assuming she gets the job. Her wages will have to be enough to support the couple's two sons, 12 and 15, and of course her husband, until he can find work again. The only problem is that 300 of the village's 1,500 residents had moved to Portugal, and 200 are now back.

'My Debts Are Growing'

The struggle for the few available jobs will be relentless. A disaster is taking shape in the job market throughout Bulgaria. Investors are staying away. In December alone, 15,000 workers were laid off, mainly in the metal industry, mining and the textile sector. The government hopes to find jobs in construction projects for the unemployed workers now returning home.

Chultem Choijusuren, the Mongolian mechanic, is also packing his bags. There is no doubt that by the time he arrived in Europe, he had already missed the boat. Choijusuren is now sitting in the unheated office of the Czech-Mongolian Society in Plzen, one of 13,000 Mongolians in the country. A hanging on the wall behind him depicts Genghis Khan, and only a few meters away is a portrait of former Czech President Václav Havel. He never managed to find a job, he says, "but my debts are growing from one day to the next."

When Choijusuren stepped off the train in Prague after a weeklong journey, he was greeted by the Mongolian contact person, but with the news that "there is no more work in the Czech Republic." He found a place to stay with fellow Mongolians, rationed his savings and set out on his own in search of the €1,000 job he had expected. But his efforts were in vain. "There is nothing for me here anymore," he says.

The Czech government will pay his return ticket. It anticipates that there will be well over 30,000 unemployed foreigners in the country in the coming months. Czech authorities are deeply concerned that some of the Vietnamese, Chinese and Mongolian migrant workers could turn to crime.

Prague prefers to dispose of these victims of globalization before that happens.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,druck-614065,00.html
JPTF 2009/03/19

março 14, 2009

‘A WEB fez 20 anos: hoje passávamos sem ela?‘ in La Tribune, 14 de Março de 2004


Imaginé par l'informaticien britannique Tim Berners-Lee, le réseau mondial Internet (WWW) a soufflé ce vendredi à Genève sa 20ème bougie. Pourriez-vous aujourd'hui vous passer d'Internet

Mars 1989. Un document intitulé "Gestion de l'information: une proposition" arrive sur le bureau d'un responsable de l'Organisation européenne de recherche nucléaire (Cern). Son auteur, Tim Berners-Lee, jeune ingénieur-programmeur informatique, est en contrat temporaire au Cern. A ce moment-là, l'idée est de permettre aux milliers de scientifiques du monde entier, collaborant aux travaux de l'organisation, de rester en contact et de partager à distance les résultats de leurs recherches."Vague, mais passionnant", qualifie son supérieur en prenant connaissance du projet, tout en y donnant son aval.

Tilm Berners-Lee et toute une équipe d'ingénieurs mettent alors au point le langage hypertexte (ce qui se cache derrière les initiales "http" des adresses internet) et, en octobre 1990, le premier navigateur internet, qui ressemble étonnamment à ceux qui sont utilisés aujourd'hui, voit le jour. Et d'ailleurs, "tout ce qu'on dit maintenant, les blogs, etc. c'était ce qu'on faisait en 1990. Il n'y avait aucune différence. C'est comme ça qu'on a demarré", a déclaré Robert Cailliau, l'un des créateurs de la Toile, à la radio suisse RSR.

Puis, le grand public verra cet outil technologique mis à sa disposition à partir de 1991 lorsque le Cern parvint à la conclusion qu'il n'avait pas les capacités pour en assurer le développement. L'organisation renonça deux ans plus tard à percevoir des royalties sur cette invention qui a révolutionné le monde des communications.

Vingt ans plus tard, Robert Cailliau s'enthousiasme pour des applications telles que Wikipédia, qui permet de partager des connaissances de manière ouverte, mais n'avait jamais imaginé que les moteurs de recherche prendraient une telle importance.

En revanche, l'aspect commercial du développement du Web l'irrite. "Il y a des choses que je n'aime pas du tout: le fait que les gens doivent vivre de la pub, tandis que j'avais preconisé plutôt un modèle de paiement automatique avec de la monnaie numérisée pour payer directement le fournisseur d'informations".

"Il y a aussi, bien sûr, le grand problème de l'identité, la confiance entre celui qui regarde et celui qui met la page à disposition, et la protection des enfants...", énumère-t-il encore.

Tim Berners-Lee, qui dirige le World Wide Web Consortium (3WC) chargé de coordonner le développement de son invention, s'inquiète pour sa part de l'intrusion dans la sphère privée et du profilage automatique des internautes à des fins commerciales ou publicitaires.

Et vous, que vous inspire cet anniversaire ? Pourriez-vous vous passer du web aujourd'hui ? Vous en méfiez-vous tout de même, en raison des dérives possibles à la "big brother"(traçages des sites visités, suivi des profils...) ? Donnez votre avis ci-dessous dans l'espace "commentaire".

http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises/communication/telecom-internet/20090313trib000354821/le-web-a-20-ans-pourriez-vous-vous-en-passer-.html?print
JPTF 2009/03/14

março 12, 2009

A França regressa à NATO: ‘Sarkozy quebra com o gaulismo e a tradição‘ in Der Spiegel, 12 de Março 2009


France wants to give up its special role after 43 years and reintegrate into all structures of NATO. The decision by President Nicolas Sarkozy represents a break from his predecessors, but it has drawn heavy criticism across partisan lines in Paris.

It was a chronicle of a return foretold. Academics, members of parliament and diplomats, as well as current and former cabinet ministers had gathered, against the impressive backdrop of the École Militaire in Paris, to attend a conference titled "France, European Defense and NATO in the 21st Century." The event made it seem as if the decision of the day had not been made yet. That afternoon, French President Nicolas Sarkozy had used the ceremonial backdrop of the Foch Amphitheater to announce his country's reintegration into all structures of the Atlantic alliance.

Citing his "responsibility for the nation's strategic decisions" and noting that strategic conditions in the world have changed considerably, Sarkozy pledged France's "full commitment" at the side of its partners -- 43 years after former President and General Charles de Gaulle withdrew France from the Atlantic alliance.

France's reintegration into NATO creates a largely symbolic orientation, with which Sarkozy, a committed friend of the United States (and Israel), seeks to liberate himself from the doubts of his European friends. But with this one-sided diplomatic move, Sarkozy was merely promoting France's interests.

Nevertheless, Sarko's turnaround represents a "break " with tradition. NATO, created after World War II, on April 4, 1949, was an allied organization designed to defend the West against the Soviet Union and serve as a counterweight against the Warsaw Pact. France was a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance.

The French withdrawal from NATO's integrated military and leadership structures took place in March 1966, because de Gaulle refused to allow the French armed forces to submit to US command. It was the middle of the Cold War, and the fact that La Grande Nation, which had just become a nuclear power, was going it alone was perceived as a destabilizing maneuver.

But the separation was not destined to last forever. In fact, France's subsequent rapprochement with NATO took place in stages. By 1992, France had joined the NATO operations in Kosovo, and French troops later participated in military campaigns in Afghanistan. In 1996, Paris said that it would re-establish a permanent military mission to NATO, and in 2004 French military officials were once again part of the NATO command. Since then, the French flag has fluttered in front of NATO headquarters once again, and today more than 4,000 French soldiers are deployed on NATO missions worldwide.

The End of the French Exception

Now Paris has put an end to the "French exception" and is turning its back on an "anti-American" reflex. France's change of heart is likely to be celebrated symbolically in early April a the NATO summit meeting in Strasbourg, France, and across the Rhine River in Kehl, Germany. In practice, however, the changes will have few consequences. France's return will provide 900 officers with NATO jobs and, most of all, Paris will be rewarded by being given command of two structures. This, at least, is the apparent upshot of a behind-the-scenes agreement between Elysée Palace and the White House.

The new French members of the General Staff will supervise the Allied Command Transformation project in Virginia. In addition, French military officials will take over regional command headquarters in Lisbon, the location of NATO's Rapid Reaction Force and its satellite reconnaissance system.

The amount of power that a land Sarkozy refers to as "a major power like France" is regaining with its return to the NATO structures is a matter of controversy among experts and even within the ranks of Sarkozy's party. In particular, there is growing dissatisfaction among old-guard Gaullists, who interpret Sarkozy's policy of a "break" with the old simply as a betrayal of de Gaulle's legacy. And it's not just the Socialists and their former prime ministers, Lionel Jospin and Laurent Fabius, who reject the president's about face -- even Sarkozy's former colleagues from the conservative governing party, Alain Juppé and Dominique de Villepin, have publicly criticized the change of heart on NATO.

Solidarity with Berlin

All of this was reason enough for Sarkozy to underscore, in his address, the notion that the return to the command structure of NATO is "in the interest of France and Europe" and would represent a "strengthening of our sovereignty." "We cannot risk the lives of our soldiers without taking part in the planning," the president said, insisting that Paris would continue to reserve the right to a "freedom of assessment" before deploying its troops on NATO missions.

Of course, to ensure that the NATO debate would not turn into a fiasco in the National Assembly in Paris, Sarkozy asked his prime minister to hold a vote of confidence after the debate, which is hardly likely to permit opposition. This gives Prime Minister Francois Fillon a tool to pressure the dissidents within his party and bring them back on course with the administration.

Sarkozy can also celebrate another triumph. The president's decision has met with far less criticism from the public. In fact, 58 percent of the French support their country's return to the NATO command structures.

Sarkozy received congratulatory notes on his speech from Brussels and applause from Berlin -- even before he had given it. In a perfect show of solidarity between President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the two politicians sang the praises of the defense alliance leading up to the Munich Security Conference. "As a response to crises and conflicts, the alliances that are based on shared values -- the European Union and NATO -- are becoming increasingly important," the wrote in a joint newspaper contribution.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,druck-612840,00.html
JPTF 2009/03/12

março 10, 2009

‘Sequelas na política externa‘ por Robert Kagan in Washington Post, 9 de Fevereiro de 2009


President Obama's foreign policy team has been working hard to present its policies to the world as constituting a radical break from the Bush years. In the broadest sense, this has been absurdly easy: Obama had the world at hello.

When it comes to actual policies, however, selling the pretense of radical change has required some sleight of hand -- and a helpful press corps. Thus the New York Times reports a dramatic "shift" in China policy to "rigorous and persistent engagement," as if the previous two administrations had been doing something else for the past decade and a half. Another Times headline trumpeted a new "softer tone on North Korea," based on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's suggestion that the United States would have a "great openness to working with" Pyongyang -- as soon as it agrees to "verifiable and complete dismantling and denuclearization." Startling.

The media have also reported a dramatic shift in the Obama administration's approach to conducting the Activity Formerly Known as the War on Terror. "Bush's 'War' on Terror Comes to Sudden End," The Post announced on Jan. 23, and subsequent stories have proclaimed a transformation from "hard power" to "soft power," from military action to diplomacy -- even as the Obama administration sends 17,000 troops to Afghanistan, significantly expands Predator drone attacks in Pakistan and agrees to a timetable for drawing down troops in Iraq scarcely distinguishable from what a third Bush administration (with the same defense secretary) might have ordered.

So, too, the administration's insistence on linking proposed missile defense installations in Europe to the "threat" posed by Iran, or its offer to negotiate Russia's acquiescence to this plan and even to share missile defense technology. All this is widely celebrated as new. But Defense Secretary Robert Gates began these negotiations with Moscow more than a year ago. On Iran, the emphasis on carrots, in the form of a global political and economic embrace if Tehran stops pursuing nuclear weapons, and sticks, in the form of international sanctions and isolation if it doesn't, is not exactly novel. Add to this the administration's justifiable hesitancy, campaign rhetoric notwithstanding, to jump into direct, high-level negotiations but to focus instead on mid-level contacts or multilateral meetings on other subjects such as Afghanistan and Iraq, and it's no surprise if Iranian officials wonder what's the big deal.

This is all to the good. So far, President Obama has made generally sound decisions on Afghanistan, Iraq, missile defense and Iran. Along with the language of unclenched fists and reset buttons, the basic goals and premises of U.S. policy have not shifted. If the world views this as a revolution, so much the better. Whatever works.

Yet there is another area where the administration claims to depart from the Bush legacy but really hasn't, and I wish that it would. That is the issue of democracy and human rights. Ever since Clinton's confirmation hearing, where she talked about three D's -- defense, diplomacy and development -- but not a fourth -- democracy -- the press has made much of this allegedly sharp departure from the Bush administration's "freedom agenda." (Vice President Biden's prominent remarks about the fourth D in Munich last month have been ignored because they didn't fit the storyline.) Thus the Times's Peter Baker writes that "Obama appears poised to return to a more traditional American policy of dealing with the world as it is rather than as it might be." Set aside what a funny sentence that is to anyone with even scant knowledge of American history and its traditions -- remember Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton? The more interesting question is whether the Bush administration ever seriously pursued a "freedom agenda."

As my Carnegie colleague and preeminent democracy expert Thomas Carothers points out, the idea that the Bush administration engaged in a massive effort to promote democracy around the world is mostly myth. While every U.S. president for the past three decades has engaged in some degree of democracy promotion, he writes, "the place of democracy in Bush foreign policy was no greater, and in some ways was less, than in the foreign policies of his predecessors." It did provide important support to struggling democracies in Ukraine, Georgia and Lebanon. But Bush ignored the systematic dismantling of democracy in Russia. Like Secretary Clinton, he did not let human rights get in the way of dealing with China. The Bush administration supported Pakistani strongman Pervez Musharraf until the bitter end. It backed away from challenging Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to hold freer and fairer elections in 2005, and whatever ardor it had about pushing for democracy in the Middle East cooled significantly after the 2006 election of Hamas. Meanwhile, it worked closely with dictators in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Aside from Iraq and Afghanistan, where its stalwart support for democratic progress was undermined for many years by failed military strategy, it is hard to point to many places where the "freedom agenda" was ever seriously implemented.

The world would be a better and safer place if the Bush administration's policies had more closely matched its rhetoric. But in any case, as Carothers notes, the idea that "a major post-Bush realist corrective is needed represents a serious misreading of the past eight years." It would be ironic, to say the least, if in its desire to distinguish itself from Bush on this issue, the Obama administration wound up replicating Bush. Viva la revolución!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/08/AR2009030801493_pf.html
JPTF 2009/03/10

março 04, 2009

Mapa interactivo do ‘NRC Handelsblad‘ com os números da crise na União Europeia


O jornal holandês NRC Handelsblad tem um aqui um interessante mapa interactivo (em inglês) sobre o números da crise económica e financeira nos diversos Estados-membros da União Europeia (crescimento do PIB, dívida pública, défice orçamental, desemprego, etc.). Este recurso permite, por exemplo, aferir rapidamente a situação portuguesa face a outros países europeus num conjunto de indicadores chave.

JPTF 2009/03/04

fevereiro 28, 2009

A crise de deflação: ‘Reino Unido abaixo de zero ‘ in Financial Times, 28 de Fevereiro de 2009


Deflation is coming to the UK. In fact, it is already here. Prices have fallen 3.8 per cent since last September, according to the official retail prices index. When the February figures are published, economists are certain the annual comparison will be negative for the first time in almost half a century.

While Britain is far from alone in watching the inflation figures tumble, it is unusual internationally in the number of contracts for savers, investors, pensioners and employees that are linked to the RPI – many of which were written at a time when falling prices were inconceivable “[Negative inflation] is striking because it hasn’t happened for such a long time,” says Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics.

Peculiarities in the RPI may make the UK’s plight look worse than it is. The index’s treatment of housing costs – assuming all owner-occupiers have standard variable rate mortgages, which have plummeted as interest rates have come down – is not followed anywhere else and has been the main factor driving it down this year.

As such, the falls in prices already experienced can be viewed as “good” deflation, says Mr Loynes, since they will raise real incomes and help foster a recovery. The danger, though, is that the experience of a falling price index will change expectations about inflation, induce greater caution among consumers and foster further liquidation of assets to repay debts.

This is a significant risk, recognised by the Bank of England and causing worries at the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. All have reiterated their ambition to maintain public expectations of low but positive inflation in recent weeks.

SAVERS

In a deflationary environment, there is little question that savers get a bad deal on interest rates. Mervyn King, Bank of England governor, said as much recently when he expressed “sympathy” with those who had done the right thing and not spent too much.

In January, the British Bankers’ Association reported a sharp outflow of deposits as savers sought higher interest rates elsewhere. Meanwhile, the UK’s building societies – which are dependent on retail deposits for funds – have expressed concerns about the impact that official rates near zero are having on fund flows. Data from the Bank of England show that interest rates on instant-access deposits are now comfortably below 1 per cent and likely to fall even further.

The prospect of outright deflation has even raised questions about whether savers could end up paying for the privilege of keeping cash on deposit. “Absolutely not,” says a spokesman for the Building Societies Association. “Most contracts say that interest is payable from the building society to the customer and not the other way around.”

What tends to happen, he says, is that savings rates linked to inflation promise to pay interest at some spread above the retail price index. If an account paid interest at 2 per cent above RPI and the index registered a 1 per cent decline, the rate paid would be 1 per cent. If RPI fell by 2 per cent or more, the account would pay zero interest.

Economists point out that deflation increases the purchasing power of savings. Some of what savers stand to lose in interest may be recouped by much lower prices for key staples such as food and energy.

Interest rates near zero seemed to have little effect on savers in Japan during the deflationary 1990s. Between September 1995 and January 2001, central bank rates were 0.5 per cent. The savings rate hovered between 10 and nearly 12 per cent of income until 2000. Savings slid after September 2001, when rates were cut to 0.1 per cent, but even then there was no net outflow.

PENSIONERS

Pensioners whose income provider is secure could be some of the big winners from deflation. Helen Ball, a partner at Sackers, the London-based pensions law specialists, says that at the very least they are unlikely to lose out.

Most trust deeds, which govern the award of discretionary increases, were written long before anyone contemplated the possibility of deflation. Even trustees of schemes where the deed implies that pension payments can fall would find it difficult to trim in line with RPI. “Morally, that is very difficult to do. People are expecting an increase to fixed incomes,” she says.

Most UK schemes rise in line with inflation, she says, albeit often up to a set limit. Some trust deeds make no reference to RPI but require annual minimum uplifts, say of 3 per cent, regardless of what inflation is doing.

UK rules require that deferred pensions – the benefits of those who leave their employer before they reach retirement age – have payments adjusted to reflect the effects of inflation. A short bout of deflation is unlikely to significantly dent their incomes.

The one group of retirees who could be harmed are those who have purchased annuities that allow for cuts in the event of deflation, according to Tom McPhail, head of pensions research at Hargreaves Lansdowne.

UK social security payments for retirees are index-linked and, even if inflation is zero, there is a small guaranteed annual uplift.

Most European state pension benefits and some private sector benefits are also index-linked. In France they are adjusted for the costs of living, while in Denmark disability pensions are adjusted in line with wages growth.

In the US, private sector pensions are never uprated for inflation and, in most cases, retirees see incomes fall in real terms as price increases erode purchasing power, according to Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Deflation could help such pensioners, she says.

INVESTORS

Investors in almost every asset class bar government bonds are likely to be worse off in a deflationary environment, according to Graham Secker, equities strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Deflation is not good news for equities markets generally,” he says. “It is a signal that the economy is very, very weak and that sales and profits are going backwards.”

However, for companies that remain profitable, there will be pressure to maintain dividends, he says. While many companies have a dividend policy of maintaining a pay-out in real terms – ensuring that rises at least keep pace with inflation – they will be under pressure not to reverse themselves in a deflationary environment.

During some of the UK’s most torrid periods of inflation in the 1980s, corporate profits rose strongly because producers could put prices up. In a deflationary environment, the reverse pressures will be in force.

Investors in corporate bonds may find themselves somewhat better off. Interest payments are generally fixed – and even when floating are at a premium to some other interest rates, providing hard cash at a time when prices are falling. However, in a deflationary environment, the companies that issued these bonds are much more likely to default and investors may not get all their principal back.

There are real risks for investors in other asset classes, too. Commercial property, often seen as a risk halfway between equities and bonds, is rapidly falling in value. In the UK, virtually all gains since 2002 have been wiped out, and values are falling in continental Europe and in the US. Those who purchased it for the rental income are feeling the pinch, too; insolvent occupiers cannot pay rents.

The one group of investors certain to do well – at least initially – are those buying government bonds, Mr Secker notes. Governments rarely default and these bonds still carry regular income payments.

WORKERS

Pay is likely to be one of the most contentious issues debated during a bout of deflation.

Alistair Hatchett of Incomes Data Services, which tracks pay claims, says employers and workers are in uncharted territory. For decades, the rule of thumb was that salaries edged out inflation by 1.5 to 2 percentage points, allowing wages to grow in real terms. But in recent years, national average earnings have been subdued and lower than inflation, he says. A number of employers in the UK have already announced pay freezes, while others are discussing pay cuts as a jobs-saving measure.

The Engineering Employers’ Federation, whose members work largely in manufacturing, says that results of its wages survey for the quarter ending in January showed the average pay rise agreed over the period was 1.8 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in the three months to December.

In January alone, the average wage rise was 1.6 per cent, down from 1.8 per cent last December and 2.9 per cent in November. “We had to double-check the numbers a few times because the scale of the movement was so unprecedented,” says a spokesman for the federation, noting that pay deals rarely move by more than 0.1 or 0.2 per cent over rolling three-month periods. The January survey, he adds, is particularly important because that is when most pay bargains are struck in the manufacturing sector.

Indeed, in light of the current outlook for inflation, the three-year wage deals that government struck with public sector workers last year, where annual pay rises range from 2.3 to 2.6 per cent, look generous.

Several UK unions struck deals last April at 5 per cent, while others settled in September and October 2008 with pay rises of over 4 per cent. Only one of the employers involved, British Midlands, is seeking to renegotiate. “The interesting thing is that there has been very little reneging on long-term deals,” Mr Hatchett said.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac70b0fa-050c-11de-8166-000077b07658.html
JPTF 2009/02/28

fevereiro 26, 2009

‘A quinta coluna do Profeta: islamistas ganham terreno em Serajevo‘ in Der Spiegel, 25 de Fevereiro de 2009


Radical Muslim imams and nationalist politicians from all camps are threatening Sarajevo's multicultural legacy. With the help of Arab benefactors, the deeply devout are acquiring new recruits. In the "Jerusalem of the Balkans," Islamists are on the rise.

The obliteration of Israel is heralded in a torrent of words. "Zionist terrorists," the imam thunders from the glass-enclosed pulpit at the end of the mosque. "Animals in human form" have transformed the Gaza Strip into a "concentration camp," and this marks "the beginning of the end" for the Jewish pseudo-state.

Over 4,000 faithful are listening to the religious service in the King Fahd Mosque, named after the late Saudi Arabian monarch King Fahd Bin Abd al-Asis Al Saud. The women sit separately, screened off in the left wing of the building. It is the day of the Khutbah, the great Friday sermon, and the city where the imam has predicted Israel's demise lies some 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) northwest of Gaza.

It is a city in the heart of Europe: Sarajevo.

"Tea or coffee?" Shortly after stepping down from the pulpit, Nezim Halilovic -- the imam and fiery speaker of the King Fahd Mosque -- reveals himself to be the perfect Bosnian host. He has fruits, nuts and sweetened gelatin served in his quarters behind the house of worship. A chastely-dressed wife and four children add themselves to the picture. It's a scene of domestic tranquility that stands in stark contrast to the railing sermon of the controversial Koran scholar.

Familiar Allegations

Sarajevo's King Fahd Mosque was built with millions of Saudi dollars as the largest house of worship for Muslims in the Balkans. The mosque has a reputation as a magnet for Muslim fundamentalists in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the imam is said to be the patron of the Wahhabites, although they call themselves Salafites, after an ultra-conservative movement in Sunni Islam.

Halilovic is familiar with the allegations and the usual accompanying thought patterns: Wahhabite equals al-Qaida, which equals a worldwide terror network. He says he has nothing to do with that, but he "cannot forbid a Muslim from worshiping in my mosque according to his own rites." He explains the general air of suspicion surrounding the King Fahd Mosque as follows: "The West is annoyed that many Muslims are returning to their faith, instead of sneaking by the mosque to the bar, as they used to do, to drink alcohol and eat pork."

Many Bosnians have despised "the West" since 1992, when the United Nations arms embargo seriously impeded the military resistance of the Muslims in their war against the Serb aggressors. It wasn't until four years later, and after 100,000 people had died, that the international community -- at the urging and under the leadership of the US -- finally put an end to the slaughter. Over 80 percent of the dead civilians in the Bosnian War were Muslims.

This traumatic experience left a deep mark on the traditionally cosmopolitan Muslim Bosnians -- and opened the door to the Islamists. Years later, the religious fundamentalists have declared the attacks by Christian Serbs and Croats a "crusade" by infidels -- and painted themselves as the steadfast protectors of Muslim Bosnians.

Imam Halilovic served during the war as commander of the Fourth Muslim Brigade. A photo shows him standing next to a 155 milimeter howitzer, dressed in black combat fatigues, a flowing beard and a scarf wrapped around his head. He witnessed the arrival of the first religious warriors from countries in the Middle East and northern Africa. These fighters brought ideological seeds that have now found fertile ground -- the beliefs of the Salafites, Islamic fundamentalists who orient themselves according to the alleged unique, pure origin of their religion and reject all newer Islamic traditions.

Another Explosive Situation

Sarajevo is at the crossroads of the West and the Orient, in the heart of Europe -- a place where Islam meets the Catholic and Orthodox churches, and a place that shares the historical legacies of the Ottoman Empire and the Austria-Hungary of the Habsburgs. If Europe were to lose Sarajevo's Muslims as mediators between these worlds, it would have to contend with yet another explosive situation.

Bosnia's capital city still remains a bustling town with well-stocked bars, concerts and garish advertisements for sexy lingerie. Men with billowing trousers and full beards and women with full-body veils are still a relatively rare sight on the streets. The last reports of sharia militias intervening against public kissing in parks on the outskirts of town date back two years ago.

According to a survey conducted in 2006, however, over 3 percent of all Muslim Bosnians -- over 60,000 men and women -- profess the Wahhabi creed, and an additional 10 percent say that they sympathize with the devout defenders of morals. But since the radicals and their Arab benefactors have been subject to heightened surveillance in the wake of 9/11, they tend to keep a low profile.

In the evenings, though, individuals and small groups quickly exit the shell-pocked apartment buildings surrounding the King Fahd Mosque. At this time of day, there is a much smaller crowd of worshipers than at noon during the big Friday prayers, and the fifth column of the prophet can almost feel as if it has the mosque to itself.

They pray differently, with spread legs and in tight rows, "so the devil cannot pass." They refuse to allow fellow worshipers to say the ritual peace greeting "salam" at the end, they don't say a word, they don't want to be part of the Jamaat, the community, and they leave the mosque together as a group before the others. [...]

Ler artigo completo na revista Spiegel Online International
JPTF 2009/02/26