‘A Grécia, um país de humor autodestrutivo‘ in Courrier International, 10 de Dezembro de 2008

por Alexis Papachelas

J'éprouve un profond sentiment de désespoir quand je vois mon pays dévaler une pente sans fin. Un de mes amis l'a bien résumé : "Tu te souviens de l'euphorie que nous avons connue quand nous avons remporté le Championnat d'Europe de football [en 2004], et durant l'été des Jeux olympiques [la même année] ? Eh bien, aujourd'hui, je ressens exactement le contraire."

La mort d'un adolescent abattu par la police dans le quartier [contestataire] d'Exarchia le 6 décembre et les destructions qui ont suivi ont déclenché la colère et une vague de folie qui a étouffé toute raison. Les adolescents descendent dans la rue parce qu'ils sont déçus de ce qu'on leur a légué et qu'ils savent à quel point il leur sera difficile de maintenir leur niveau de vie à l'avenir. Et ils ont en outre le sentiment qu'aujourd'hui tout est permis.

La classe moyenne se désespère parce qu'elle sent que le gouvernement [conservateur, dirigé par Costas Caramanlis] est incompétent ; elle redoute ce qui l'attend dans le domaine économique. Les policiers baissent les yeux parce qu'ils se sentent perdus et qu'ils ne savent pas exactement en quoi consiste leur mission et comment l'accomplir. Le gouvernement a perdu le sens des réalités, il vit dans sa tour d'ivoire et parle de complot tout en déployant de plus en plus d'unités antiémeutes. L'opposition n'a pas pris la mesure de la gravité de la situation et ne comprend pas que, si jamais elle revenait au pouvoir, bougies et belles paroles ne suffiraient pas, car les gens, surtout les jeunes, sont à bout.

Il est difficile de trouver une logique à la situation. Voilà un pays où l'Etat est désorganisé, où les forces de l'ordre sont désemparées, où des universités médiocres engendrent des foyers de colère plutôt que de transmettre le savoir, où le système de protection sociale est en ruine. Un pays qui, de plus, est au bord du gouffre financier. Et nous sommes là à débattre pour savoir si nous vivons dans un Etat policier, à revenir sur 1974 [la chute de la dictature des colonels], à ressasser les mêmes conversations sur les mêmes vieilles questions.

La responsabilité du gouvernement est immense. Une succession de scandales, d'erreurs et de décisions inadéquates a abouti à un Etat sans chef et à une inertie qui nous empêche d'aller de l'avant.

http://www.courrierinternational.com/article.asp?obj_id=92577#
JPTF 2008/12/10

A Questão de Chipre: Implicações para a União Europeia e a Adesão da Turquia

Situada no extremo oriental do mar Mediterrâneo, próxima da Turquia, da Síria e do Líbano, a ilha de Chipre é o território da União Europeia geograficamente mais afastado de Portugal. A distância geográfica acompanha a distância no (des)conhecimento da realidade política, social, económica e cultural do país. Chipre só tem visibilidade nos media quando as negociações de adesão da Turquia à União Europeia colidem com o problema da reunificação e as posições do governo cipriota.

Como é que se chegou a esta situação invulgar para a actual island of peace europeia? Porque é que a ilha foi dividida em 1974, de uma maneira que faz lembrar a Alemanha durante a Guerra Fria? Qual a razão porque este novo Estado-membro da União Europeia entrou truncado em mais de 1/3 do seu território e em cerca de 1/5 da sua população? Porque falhou o plano Plano Annan, no seu objectivo de reunificar as duas partes da ilha em 2004? Que se pode esperar do novo processo negociai relançado em 2008? Quais as consequências da perpetuação deste conflito para o futuro europeu e a adesão da Turquia? A análise em profundidade destas questões, numa abrangente perspectiva histórica, política e de relações internacionais, é o objecto central deste livro que preenche um vazio face à inexistência de estudos portugueses, de perfil académico-científico, sobre este importante assunto da política europeia e internacional (URL).

O contribuinte europeu e o ‘salvamento‘ de empresas em crise

‘As Humanidades afastam-se da Universidade‘ in City Journal, Outono de 2008,vol. 18, nº 4

por Victor Davis Hanson

Until recently, classical education served as the foundation of the wider liberal arts curriculum, which in turn defined the mission of the traditional university. Classical learning dedicated itself to turning out literate citizens who could read and write well, express themselves, and make sense of the confusion of the present by drawing on the wisdom of the past. Students grounded in the classics appreciated the history of their civilization and understood the rights and responsibilities of their unique citizenship. Universities, then, acted as cultural custodians, helping students understand our present values in the context of a 2,500-year tradition that began with the ancient Greeks.

But in recent decades, classical and traditional liberal arts education has begun to erode, and a variety of unexpected consequences have followed. The academic battle has now gone beyond the in-house “culture wars” of the 1980s. Though the argument over politically correct curricula, controversial faculty appointments, and the traditional mission of the university is ongoing, the university now finds itself being bypassed technologically, conceptually, and culturally, in ways both welcome and disturbing. [...]

OBS: Ver artigo completo  em http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_4_classical_education.html 

JPTF 2008/12/06

Cartoon de Eric Allie no Courrier International

‘Bombaim: uma mensagem para Obama‘ in Asharq Alawsat, 28 de Novembro de 2008

por Tariq Alhomayed

Over the past few years, it has been easy for most people in most places to attack US President George W. Bush, who is preparing to leave the White House, as they attributed mistakes and crises to him forgetting that the war on terror is still in its early stages. Not only did they criticize him for the methodology in dealing with terrorism, rather they have made him a scapegoat for everything.

The one to benefit the most from all of this was US President-elect Barack Obama. However, the Mumbai terrorist attacks in India that have left over 130 people dead represent a clear message to Obama, if not the entire world. It is a message for one person specifically whose positions are still being formed.

The Mumbai operation is a message to President-elect Barack Obama to say: you have dreams of a better world but this is the real world that you must deal with. In spite of how you have arranged your priorities, terrorism will always be at the top of the list.

The coordinated terrorist attacks that targeted roughly ten places in Mumbai including a hospital, cafes, restaurants, hotels as well as communication outlets, and foreign tourists, are evidence that the serpent of terrorism is still alive and strong.

Moreover, the methods that were used in the terrorist operation prove that [fighting] terrorism is not the responsibility of one country, it requires international efforts. According to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the attackers came from outside India “to create havoc in India’s commercial capital.”

As the hostages of various nationalities remain in captivity in India’s commercial capital, Mumbai, global interest of the event continues to grow and when the terrorist operation is over, the facts that cannot be ignored will remain.

India is an influential country politically, economically, and even with regards to technology. It has international weight as it is not a marginal country that the world can overlook. In addition, there are other significant meanings to the statement that the perpetrators came from outside India.

This reminds us of the raging battlefronts in Pakistan and Afghanistan where there is open confrontation with Al Qaeda and the Taliban and this is an issue that President-elect Obama has spoken about several times on the basis that the foundation of the war on terror is Afghanistan.

But the questions remain: Can America fight terrorism on its own? Can it rebuild Afghanistan that has been destroyed essentially since the Soviet invasion? Can Washington ignore Iraq at the expense of Afghanistan?

The problem of terrorism does not only afflict the country in which it exists; the danger lies in ignoring it. For the countries that believe that they are distant from the issue of terrorism, it will soon catch up with them; in fact it is on their doorstep. The danger of what is happening in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan is that it is concentrated in a region in which ignorance, tribalism and nuclear weapons come together.

However it is important here to highlight that the terrorist incident in India may be indicative of greater danger to come. On Wednesday, a warning was issued that terrorists might target the New York transit system and this reminds of the circumstances the surrounded 9/11 – it started with the targeting of American embassies and the USS Cole bombing in Yemen and then came the New York attacks that shocked the world – bearing in mind that America is going through transition of power.

Therefore, we must say that those who love peace and who want to wipe out terrorism are countless…but the road to its elimination is a long one.

http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=14869
JPTF 2008/11/29

‘Terroristas pretendiam destruir símbolo do esplendor indiano‘ in Times, 27 de Novembro de 2008

It felt like India’s 9/11. Even in a country whose experience of terrorism dates back to its independence in 1947, the sight of Bombay’s Taj Mahal Palace hotel in flames after last night’s attacks was something that no one could ever have imagined.

For this was one of the nation’s most famous landmarks, an iconic building that encapsulated both the pomp and grandeur of the British Raj and the enduring vibrancy of India’s film and financial capital.

It was built in 1903 by Jamsetji N. Tata, the Indian industrialist, who believed that Bombay needed a grand hotel to take its place among the great cities of the world.

As thick black smoke billowed from its domed roof, and flames poured through its gothic arched windows, one Indian television anchor summed up the feelings of millions of watching Indians. “If America cannot forget the images of the World Trade Centre, this image of fire billowing out of this beautiful structure which represents Mumbai and its free spirit will not be forgotten here,” he said.

The symbolism was clearly no accident. The gunmen who stormed into the Taj last night appear to have set off a series of explosions with the specific intent of destroying the building.

Police suspect that they arrived by boat, mooring by the Gateway of India that was built in honour of King George V and Queen Mary in 1928.

They began their audacious assault at around 9.30pm by bursting into the hotel that was built in the Moorish, Oriental and Florentine styles on the waterfront overlooking the Arabian Sea. They opened fire indiscriminately on the crowd of well-heeled Indians and foreigners milling around the ornate lobby, with its famous cantilever stairway, onyx columns and crystal chandeliers.

As the masked gunmen started to move through the hotels’ corridors looking for foreigners, staff managed to warn many of the guests to stay in their rooms.

At 2.30am the army surrounded the building and began to storm it. At about 3.30am the fire started on the top floors of the hotel after a series of explosions and intermittent gunfire.

Firefighters tried to douse the flames but they were still raging by around 5am when there was a pause in the shooting.

Police said that nine gunmen were arrested and two were killed at the Taj. As about 100 terrified guests were finally evacuated from the hotel, the firefighters emerged too and described the scenes of devastation inside the pride of Bombay, with up to 100 guests still unaccounted for. “There’s major damage inside,” a fireman said as he emerged from the heritage wing of the hotel.

These were the rooms that had entertained everyone from Maharajahs and foreign heads of state to rock stars and billionaire industrialists.

The Beatles stayed in the hotel during their obsession with India, and John Lennon famously stayed with Yoko Ono in the hotel’s Rajput Suite, eating only from a macrobiotic menu specially prepared by the Taj’s chefs.

Royalty has often used the hotel, and members of the British royal family including Prince Charles, Prince Edward and Prince Phillip have stayed there, as have the King and Queen of Norway.

Other pop royalty has checked in, including Mick Jagger and Elvis Presley. Bill Clinton, the former US President, was also a guest.

Last night the corridors echoed with the sound of gunfire and explosions as the gunmen battled with the Maharashtra state police’s elite Anti-Terrorism Squad.

Hement Karkare, the squad’s head, was shot in the chest in the operation and soon succumbed to his wounds near the spot where Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister, founded the Goa Liberation Group in the 1950s to demand the return of the Portuguese colony.

In its opulence, the hotel was often cited as an example of the contrast between the poverty-stricken slums of Bombay and the lavish grandeur of hotels that charge up to £2,000 per night for a room, over double the average annual income of an Indian citizen.

But even to ordinary Mumbaikers, as Bombay’s residents are known, it was a source more of pride than of envy — a majestic reminder of their city’s place in the world.

“Home to the royalty, heads of states, tycoons, captains of industry, corporate nomads and jet-setters, the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower is a living tribute to Mumbai’s cosmopolitan ethos and dynamic spirit,” says the Taj’s website.

Now it stands, perhaps, as a monument to Indian terrorism — and the thousands of victims it has claimed since the country’s independence.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5241795.ece
JPTF 2008/11/27

Em visitas de estado, pode-se apoiar o Tratado de Lisboa mas não ter dúvidas sobre este... in The Economist

The Czech president, whose country takes over the rotating EU presidency in January, has caused quite a stir on an official visit to Ireland. Vaclav Klaus, a critic of the Lisbon treaty that Irish voters rejected in June, was rebuked by the Irish foreign minister for "inappropriate intervention" after he criticised the treaty at a press conference organised by Libertas, a group actively involved in the "no" campaign. The Irish Times reports that Mr Klaus, who opposes greater EU integration, responded by calling the minister "a hypocrite".

For a treaty that has been declared dead multiple times already, Lisbon certainly seems to be kicking up an ongoing fuss. For opponents who keep talking about it, the real point seems to be the desire to make the EU more democratic and open.

Accusations and counter-accusations have been flying around Dublin. The foreign minister, Micheal Martin, is just one of several Irish politicians to blast Mr Klaus for inappropriate behaviour during his state visit. There are also charges that the government had excluded Irish journalists from a press briefing given by Mr Klaus (a spokesman blamed the Czechs).

At least some guests attending a dinner last night in honour of Mr Klaus said they were there to show annoyance at the Irish government's attempts to suppress his views. The dinner, hosted by the Libertas founder Declan Ganley, a rich and controversial businessman, drew a crowd of about 100, including what were described as "leading opponents of EU integration, anti-abortion campaigners and prominent figures in the Irish news media." They included Jens-Peter Bonde, a former Danish MEP; Anthony Coughlan of the National Platform; Hans-Peter Martin, an Austrian MEP; and Philippe de Villiers, a French MEP and former presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, talk of Libertas running candidates in next year's European parliamentary elections (reported earlier on this blog) were further fueled by a report that members of France's Mouvement pour la France, a eurosceptic party, have said they are prepared to represent Libertas. Mr de Villiers, the MPF leader, said he is among those willing to run "to enable this large pan-European movement to be present in France."

While the controversial Mr Klaus does not speak for the entire Czech government (indeed has been widely criticised in Prague over the visit to Dublin), his country is one of the few that has not accepted the Lisbon treaty. There is said to be growing concern at home over whether this will undermine its presidency of the EU.

Was it inappropriate for the Czech president to express his personal views on the Lisbon treaty during a state visit, especially given his country's upcoming leadership stint? And how might a series of Libertas candidates, if successful, change the face of European politics?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/certainideasofeurope/2008/11/dicey_diplomacy_in_dublin.cfm

JPTF 2008/11/14

A Eurozona já está em recessão in BBC, 14 de Novembro de 2008

Analysts predict the 15-nation area's economy will shrink in the third quarter of this year, following a 0.2% reduction during the second quarter.
On Thursday, government data showed Germany slipped into recession.
But France has escaped that fate, with the economy growing 0.1% in the third quarter, official data showed.
Ahead of the figures, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde unveiled the news in an interview on French radio.
She told RTL radio that the French economy had expanded by 0.14% in the third quarter, thereby escaping the technical definition of a recession which is two quarters of negative growth.
France's economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter.
Ms Lagarde welcomed the news.
"The figure is astonishing because everyone was expecting a negative figure and preparing for a recession," she said, pointing out that stable consumption and company investment helped to support the economy.
Separate figures for Spain and Italy out later are expected to show both in recession, joining Germany which announced it was in recession on Thursday.
The BBC's Ben Shore says that if those numbers are confirmed, the employment and pay prospects for 320 million Europeans look grim, but it will also serve to focus minds in Washington where leaders of the G20 developed and emerging economies will begin talks over the weekend.

Economic summit
The group, representing 85% of the world's economy and two-thirds of its population, is to discuss how to contain the financial crisis and agree on longer-term reforms to reduce the risk of a repeat.
Ahead of the summit, Gordon Brown called for worldwide tax cuts and spending increases to prevent the global economy from slipping into recession.
"We need to agree on the importance of co-ordination of monetary and fiscal policy," he said.
"There is a need for urgency. By acting now, we can stimulate growth in all our economies. The cost of inaction will be far greater than the cost of any action."
US President George W Bush insisted the financial crisis was not a failure of free-market capitalism.
Speaking in New York, he said the surest way back to sustained economic growth was not to reinvent the system, but to reform it.
"The answer... is to fix the problems we face, make the reforms we need, and move forward with the free-market principles that have delivered prosperity and hope to people all across the globe," he said.
Critics say Mr Bush's words are unlikely to convince those who see the crumbling US economy as an indictment of his own policies.
On Thursday, data showed the number of US workers drawing unemployment benefits had hit a 25-year-high of 3.9 million in the week to 1 November.
Protracted slowdown
Official EU figures for the third quarter are expected to show that the eurozone has slipped into recession - defined as two quarters of negative growth - with forecasts of a 0.1% drop in GDP, following a 0.2% contraction between April and June.
On Thursday, official figures showed the German economy, one of the world's largest, had shrunk 0.5% in the third quarter, following a 0.4% drop in the second quarter.
On Wednesday, the Bank of England said the British economy was probably already there.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says economic activity is expected to fall 0.5% in the eurozone next year as the world's leading economies enter a protracted slowdown.
In further evidence of the deteriorating economic climate, new car sales were down 14.5% in October, the sixth month in a row of declines.
'Human crisis'
Meanwhile, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said his country and the EU could "speak with one voice" at the G20 summit hosted by US President George W Bush.
"Russia is ready, together with the EU and other partners, to participate in working out the parameters of a new financial architecture," he said.
The G20 meeting will bring together both leading industrial powers such as the US, Japan and Germany, and emerging market countries such as China, India and Brazil.
The heads of the World Bank and the IMF, the UN secretary-general and the chairman of the Financial Stability Forum have also been invited to attend.
The leaders are scheduled to dine at the White House on Friday evening and hold two plenary sessions on Saturday, followed by a statement by President Bush.
They hope to agree on a common set of principles for future reform, including changes to the organisations charged with regulating the world economy. Later summits will focus on working out the details of the reforms needed.
In an open letter to the G20 published on Thursday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged them to prevent the economic slowdown causing a "human tragedy" among the poor, particularly in developing countries.
"If hundreds of millions of people lose their livelihoods and their hopes for the future are dashed because of a crisis they have absolutely no responsibility for, the human crisis will not remain just economic," he warned.
Mr Ban said that even though more than 170 countries would not be present in Washington, he stressed "they also face grave difficulties" and that immediate action was more vital for them than reform of global financial institutions.
Japan has announced it is prepared to lend up to $100bn to the IMF to help emerging economies hit by the financial crisis.
The loan offer is a part of a package of measures that the Japanese Prime Minister, Taro Aso, intends to present at the G20 summit.
The IMF has already provided more than $30bn of emergency loans to Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7728649.stm
JPTF 2008/11/14

‘Seis biliões de Euros pagos indevidamente pelo orçamento europeu‘ in Times, 11 de Novembro de 2008

Six billion euros was paid out wrongly by the European Union last year, the highest cash total yet called into question by the European Court of Auditors’ annual review.

There were numerous cases of overclaiming from the EU’s budget of €114 billion (£93 billion), especially in regional projects designed to raise living standards in poorer areas, as well as “serious failures to respect procurement rules”, the auditors said.

At least 11 per cent of the €42 billion budget for regional and social funds should not have been paid out – the largest area of mismanaged expenditure and one for which the 27 member states and the European Commission are jointly responsible. There were also “irregularities” of between 2 per cent and 5 per cent in the €51 billion agriculture budget.

For the 14th successive year, the Court of Auditors was unable to state that the EU accounts were clean for “most spending areas”, although they gave the European Commission praise for producing a reliable set of figures for the first time.
“The court still finds that payments made to financial beneficiaries, such as farmers and project promoters running EU-funded projects, have a too high level of error,” they said.

Agricultural spending to encourage rural development was singled out for criticism for a “disproportionately large part of the overall error rate”.

While avoiding the label of fraud for most of the irregularities, one area of overpayment came in farmers claiming for nitrate reduction. In random checks on 13 claimants, 9 were found not to have met the criteria. Once again olive farmers, mostly in Italy, were singled out for criticism, for “errors such as unreliable data leading to overpayments.”

The auditors added: “In general, errors are often due to farmers over-claiming and/or entitlements being wrongly calculated. The court found errors related to farmers overclaiming or exaggerating land area or the number of animals.”
While the estimated level of “irregular” regional spending fell slightly from at least 12 per cent to at least 11 per cent, this led to the highest cash total because of the leap in the EU budget from €107 billion in 2006 to €114 billion last year. In all, there were material errors in 92.4 per cent of the EU budget.

Danita Hubner, the EU Commissioner for Regional Policy, said that her department had clawed back €843 million in irregular payments this year, with €1.5 billion more in the pipeline for recovery, including €243 million from Britain.

“Let’s not lose sight of the big picture – EU money helps to transform regional and national economies, invests in people’s skills, infrastructure modernisation, innovation and the environment,” she said. “Forecasts suggest that by 2013, it will increase GDP in Latvia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic by around 8.5 per cent.”

Mark Francois, the Shadow Europe Minster, said: “This depressing annual ritual has got to stop. As taxpayers across the EU feel the effects of the credit crunch they may well ask why the European Union is still failing to put its financial house in order.”

Where the money went

— Overpayments and lack of paperwork mean the European Commission will demand back £190 million from Britain this year

— £42 million of this is for projects in Northern Ireland, £31.5 million from Greater Manchester and Lancashire, £13 million from the Highlands and Islands and £12 million for errors in handling projects in South Wales

— Certified organic olives were found to be growing in a 10m high waste dump in the Puglia region of southern Italy. Four people were reported to the police for fraud after allegedly sending false certificates to the funding body, claiming that the olive oil was “produce from organic farming”

— The owners of a charitable horse-riding school received €400,000 (now £326,000) in EU funds from the Lombardy region of Italy. But the number of pupils on training courses for the disabled were allegedly inflated, with participants’ signatures forged to reach the number required to secure funding.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5127060.ece
JPTF 2008/11/11

‘A próxima queda dos mercados‘ in Wall Street Journal, 10 de Novembro de 2008

The global credit crunch has now hit emerging economies, including those in Asia, which many had hoped or expected to be able to "decouple" from developed economies. There will be no escape, and even worse, the super typhoon that is now battering emerging markets will in turn deepen the global recession.

The global credit contraction will affect emerging markets in several ways. First, their exports and imports (of raw materials) will fall as excess demand is eliminated in the over-leveraged rich economies of Europe and North America. There will also be a reduction in capital flows to developing economies in all forms (credit, portfolio investment and foreign direct investment) as a result of deleveraging. At the same time, household and corporate wealth will be destroyed as a result of falling liquidity supply from both domestic and foreign sources. Those emerging economies with large foreign-currency bank loans and liabilities face debt deflation, while many corporations in Asia will find it difficult to grow because they are unable to roll over their excessive foreign loans and bonds.

Many emerging-market current accounts will turn from surplus to deficit, private capital inflows will drop precipitously and residents will run down their assets and take their capital out. So these economies will have a huge external financing problem next year. Their foreign exchange reserves will fall sharply along with their currencies and financial assets.

How will all this misery come about? In the great credit boom of the last decade or so, global liquidity took strange new forms. Credit supply and demand were multiplied by the advent of securitized debt and derivative instruments that facilitated almost limitless expansion of credit beyond the traditional balance sheet capacity of lending institutions. This is the phenomenon I call New Monetarism.

The credit bubble was the financial circuitry of excess consumption in many rich economies. Excess consumption was the appetite on which the factory economies of Asia fed. Like Cleopatra's beauty "they made most want where most they satisfied." In turn, other emerging markets that produced food and energy benefited from the insatiable appetite created by the economic boom of the factory economies. Thus emerging-market demand for commodities and energy was derived from growth in demand from rich economies.

But now excess credit is being removed. While this is happening, demand in rich economies will fall and savings rates will rise. So developing-world factory economies will see export demand cave in and this will cut their own demand for inputs. It has already fed through into lower commodity and oil prices.

Most emerging markets don't have sufficiently robust domestic demand to offset the impact of falling exports as well as an overhang of surplus capacity in the export sector. Their domestic economies are just too small. In China, for example, the consumer accounts for only 36% of demand and investment for 42%, much of it export-related. In the U.S., the figure for the consumer is 70%.

Emerging-market exports were not the only beneficiary of excess credit growth. Capital flows were just as important. Excess liquidity flooded into these economies in the form of portfolio and FDI inflows. This boosted currencies and bloated domestic money supply and credit. In turn, this drove up asset prices and so created more wealth and more demand. Unsurprisingly, the private sector in these countries spotted the opportunity to borrow cheap money in weak currencies and built up massive amounts of dollar and yen debts and foreign exchange derivative liabilities.

So excess credit creation in the U.S. spilled over into both capital inflows to developing countries and demand for their exports. The former created big current account surpluses; the latter boosted capital account surpluses. Both sent international reserves, particularly of dollars, through the roof.

The sum of the twin surpluses -- trade and capital -- was too big for developing countries to absorb. And the rise in international reserves, which was converted into domestic currency by the locals who receive it, was too big to be sterilized by the central banks issuing bonds. So it flowed into the lake of local currency, causing asset prices and inflation to rise.

Emerging-market central banks were accumulating so many dollars they didn't know what to do with them. If they sold them, the falling dollar could wipe out the value of their existing dollar holdings. So they sent their excess dollars back to Uncle Sam, where they generated even more credit expansion.

But now, as exports fall and inflows of liquidity dry up, the emerging markets' net external financing requirement -- the sum of their current account balance, net FDI and annual net debt repayment -- will rocket. From being awash with surplus liquidity, many emerging markets will be parched of it, particularly emerging Europe, Latin America and central Asia.

The international financial institutions will try to avert the worst, but they won't succeed. The U.S. Federal Reserve has offered $30 billion in swaps to four big emerging markets: Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Singapore. This is in addition to IMF emergency loans to Hungary and Ukraine and a promise to lend five times their entitlement to emerging markets with a record of sound economic management.

In reality the countries being chosen for such aid are those that are strategically important to the donors. But the international authorities can't defend even the economies that are considered "strategic." The cost will be greater than the resources of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and other agencies.

The thinking behind the bailout is also misdirected. When bubbles burst, asset prices have to find their own level at which they can be liquidated and sold off creditors' balance sheets. Injecting dollar liquidity into emerging markets will not prevent this because the problem is one of the solvency of excessive private sector foreign currency liabilities. It is an earnings and balance sheet issue, not a currency one.

Moreover, there are many more deficit-ridden emerging markets that won't be helped. In Asia, they include Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Globally the big and the ugly who lie outside the "defensive layer" established by the IMF, Fed and European Central Bank include Russia and Argentina. As they get hit, those that are being helped will be re-infected in turn.

The ebbing tide of global liquidity will test the perceived virtues of emerging markets. In reality, the above-average growth rates depended on an unsustainable credit cycle elsewhere that was amplified at home. The huge accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves was just an appendix of excess global liquidity. Budget arithmetic and external accounts were beneficiaries of the same phenomena.

As these winds of good fortune die out in the deserts of recession (or worse), I suspect that many measures of emerging-market fundamentals will prove mediocrity rather than excellence. That means that risk appetite for these assets will be very slow to return.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122627097815511941.html
JPTF 2008/11/10

Livros: ‘A Revolta do Primitivo. Uma Investigação nas Raízes do Politicamente Correcto‘ de Howard Schwartz

Deliriums philosophicus num mundo pós-moderno

‘Os fracos e os falhados devem perecer: primeiro princípio da nossa caridade. E há mesmo que os ajudar a desaparecer! O que é mais nocivo do que todos os vícios? – A compaixão da acção por todos os falhados e fracos [...]‘. (Nietzsche, O AntiCristo, 1888, p. 16, 2).

Visões politicamente correctas do extremismo religioso

Livros: ‘É um mundo PC! O que significa viver numa terra que se transformou em politicamente correcta‘ de Edward Stourton

O livro do jornalista Edward Stourton, apresentador do programa Today da BBC Radio 4 propõe-nos a uma visita guiada ao fantástico mundo do politicamente correcto (PC), através de um relato... neutral?! (Note-se que, com alguma honestidade intelectual, o autor reconhece ser tão fácil ser neutral neste assunto como escrever livros ‘imparciais‘ sobre o conflito do Médio Oriente...). A leitura adivinha-se estimulante para a intelligentzsia portuguesa, habitualmente tão fascinada com as ‘inovações‘ e ‘boas práticas‘ dos países mais desenvolvidos. Um dos lugares mais vibrantes deste ‘admirável mundo novo‘ é, sem dúvida, a cidade britânica de Luton (um cenário inimaginado, apesar de tudo, pelo escritor Aldous Huxley nos anos 30 do século XX). Esta exemplifica o novo paradigma da sensibilidade PC made in UK e as boas práticas de gestão autárquica do século XXI. A falta de atenção dada ao mesmo no livro, pode constituir, por isso, um motivo de desapontamento. Trata-se de um caso de estudo, a nível nacional britânico, mas também internacional, para os ‘profissionais da diversidade‘ e para todos os que se preocupam com a sensibilidade do ‘outro‘. Entre as ‘boas práticas‘ implementadas pelo executivo municipal encontram-se, por exemplo, o fim das iluminações de Natal nas ruas da cidade e o abandono das decorações com motivos alegóricos à Natividade (ver o artigo de Oliver Burkeman no jornal Guardian, intitulado The phoney war on Christmas). Ah, esta crise onde nos está a levar... Não, não é a crise financeira, é a ideologia multiculturalista, estúpido!

JPTF 2008/11/08

‘O Hamas (também) quer reunir-se com Obama‘ in El País, 8 de Novembro de 2008

Hamás se ha postulado para entablar conversaciones con el futuro presidente de EE UU, Barack Obama, enfocado como un cambio de rumbo en las relaciones entre Washington y la milicia palestina para resolver el problema de Oriente Próximo. Bajo la presidencia de George W. Bush, EE UU ha rechazado mantener cualquier contacto con Hamás.

Portavoces del movimiento islamista han asegurado que están dispuestos a hablar con Obama siempre y cuando respete "sus derechos y opciones políticas", según ha informado el líder Khaled Meshaal. "Estamos preparados para dialogar con Obama y con la nueva Administración americana que tiene una mente abierta", Meshaal ha añadido desde la capital siria de Damasco.

"Es un gran cambio, político y psicológico, y nos congratulamos por la llegada del presidente Obama", ha dicho el líder islamista, que ha puntualizado: "La Administración estadounidense tiene que buscar un acuerdo en la región, en el conflicto palestino y arabe-israelí. No tienen otra opción que un acuerdo con Hamás porque somos una fuerza real y efectiva en esta situación".

Obama visitó Israel el pasado mes de julio y minimizó los cambios en las negociaciones con los islamistas si el grupo no renunciaba a la violencia y reconocía el derecho de Israel a existir como Estado. Las negociaciones en Oriente Próximo se encuentran en punto muerto después del fracaso diplomático del Gobierno de Bush y la situación política incierta de Israel tras la dimisión del primer ministro, Ehud Olmert, y la convocatoria de elecciones anticipadas para el próximo febrero.

De visita por Oriente Próximo, la secretaria de Estado de EE UU, Condoleezza Rice, aseguró esta semana que "será muy difícil" alcanzar el acuerdo de paz entre Israel y Palestina antes de este año, tal y como se había acordado en la Cumbre de Annapolis (Maryland) promovida por el Gobierno norteamericano. Rice justificó esta falta de consenso por la "situación diferente" que vive ahora Israel tras la convocatoria de elecciones anticipadas.

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Hamas/anuncia/disposicion/entablar/conversaciones/Obama/elppgl/20081108elpepuint_10/Tes
JPTF 2008/11/08

O fim (previsível) da Obamania na Europa: ‘de facto também vamos odiar Obama‘ por David Aaronovitch in Times

It amuses me that some of those who criticise the present US Administration for its Manichaeism - its division of the world into good and evil - themselves allocate all past badness to Bush and all prospective goodness to Obama. As the ever-improving myth has it, on the morning of September 12, 2001, George W. and America enjoyed the sympathy of the world. This comradeship was destroyed, in a uniquely cavalier (or should we say cowboyish) fashion, through the belligerence, the carelessness, the ideological fixity and the rapacity of that amorphous and useful category of American flawed thinker, the neoconservative. They just threw it away.

But there isn't anything that can't be fixed with a sprinkling of genuine fairy dust. What Bush lost, Obama can find. Where the Texan swaggered, the Chicagoan can glide. Emotional literacy will replace flat iteration, persuasion will supplant force as the preferred means of achieving what needs to be achieved, empathy will trump narcissism. Those who hate America may find their antipathy waning, those who were alarmed by unilateralism will warm to softer, moral leadership. A new dawn will break, will it not?

Some on the Left are getting their count-me-outs in already, realising that Mr Obama is, after all, a big-game hunter, a full-trousered American candidate. They, I think, are more realistic than those who manage on one day to laud the Democrat as not being a real politician, and on the next to praise him for his sensible left-trimming when seeking the party's nomination and his equally sensible centre-hugging once it was in the bag. I say the antis are more realistic because, eventually, we will hate or ridicule Mr Obama too - provided, of course, that he is elected and serves two full terms.

George W.Bush, of course, represents a particular kind of offence to European sensibilities. He blew out Kyoto, instead of pretending to care about it and then not implementing it, which is what our hypocrisies require. He took no exquisite pains to make us feel consulted. He invaded Iraq in the name of freedom and then somehow allowed torturers to photograph each other in the fallen dictator's house of tortures. He is not going to run Franklin Roosevelt a close race for nomination as the second greatest president of the US.

But even if he had been a half-Chinese ballet-loving Francophone, he would have been hated by some who should have loved him, for there isn't an American president since Eisenhower who hasn't ended up, at some point or other, being depicted by the world's cartoonists as a cowboy astride a phallic missile. It happened to Bill Clinton when he bombed Iraq; it will happen to Mr Obama when his reinforced forces in Afghanistan or Pakistan mistake a meeting of tribal elders for an unwise gathering of Taleban and al-Qaeda. Then the new president (or, if McCain, the old president) will be the target of that mandarin Anglo-French conceit that our superior colonialism somehow gives us the standing to critique the Yank's naive and inferior imperialism.

Often those who express their tiresome anti-Americanism will suggest, as do some of the more disingenuous anti-Zionists with regard to anti-Semitism - that they, of course, are not anti-American, and that no one really is. But, coming as I do from an Anti-American tradition that wasn't afraid to proclaim itself, I think I know where the corpses are interred. For example, the current production of Bernstein's Candide at the English National Opera is a classic of elite anti-Americanism, in which we are invited to laugh at the philistine invocation of “Democracy, the American Way and McDonald's”. The laughter that accompanied this feeble satire showed our proper understanding that we, the audience, had a proper concept of democracy, and would never soil ourselves with an Egg McMuffin.

The true irony went way above the sniggerers' heads, which was that Leonard Bernstein was the American cultural import that we were, at that very moment, enjoying. But the prejudice is that American culture has had a negative influence on the world, tabloidising our journalism, subverting the gentle land of Ealing with the violent pleasures of Die Hard 10 and commercialising our most intimate lives. And so we have ever complained; my father, back in the early Fifties, once wrote an entire communist pamphlet about the terrible effect of Hollywood and jazz on the land of Shakespeare and Elgar.

This week you could hear the author Andrew O'Hagan on Radio 4, reading from his collection of self-conscious essays, The Atlantic Ocean, in which - despite his own claims - every impact of American life on Britain is somehow configured negatively. He writes of an exported popular culture “born in the suburbs of America” and defined as “Spite as entertainment. Shouting as argument. Dysfunction as normality. Desires as rights. Shopping as democracy.” This in the country that has sent Big Brother, Pop Idol, Wife Swap and Location, Location, Location over the Atlantic in the other direction, while taking delivery of Curb Your Enthusiasm and The Wire.

I should admit that I am irked by O'Hagan's dismissal of the “idiots who supported that bad and stupid war (ie, Iraq)” and am willing to match my idiocy against his intelligence in any debating forum that he cares to name. More interesting, though, is the desire to blame America. For all that O'Hagan claims that the US has lost its purchase on the world's affections, it remains the chosen destination for the most ambitious of the planet's migrants. For all that he claims that this change in sentiment is recent, I can't help recalling those - the most honest - who commented, in journals he writes for and on the very day after September 11, that the Americans had had it coming.

In part I think that anti-Americanism is linked to a view of change as decline. The imagination is that dynamic capitalism, associated with the US, is destroying our authentic lives, with our own partly willing connivance. It is a continuing and - at the moment - constant narrative, uniting left and right conservatives, which will usually take in the 19th- century radical journalist William Cobbett (conveniently shorn of his anti-Semitism), and end with an expression of disgust over the Dome, the Olympics or Tesco. Just as bird flu is a disease from out of the East, runaway modernity is a scourge originating to the West.

So Barack Obama, en fête around the world, will one day learn that there is no magical cure for the envy of others. What makes America the indispensable power (and even more indispensable in the era of the new China), is precisely what makes anti-Americanism inevitable.

OBS: Artigo originalmente publicado a 22/07/08
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article4374704.ece
JPTF 2008/11/07